05/25/26 Monday 11 am
I hope everyone is enjoying their extended weekend! I have very little new to share because of model inconsistencies. That alone turns this into a dartboard event. The extremes are 0.50 inches to Zero. BTW, with such a weak system, I expect this type of model inconsistency.
For the models, shoulder seasons suck. Why? Because the dominant northern jet retreats to the north. Humidity is generally south of us, and/or east of us. The systems are essentially rudderless, i.e., they just drift about with very little moisture to tap into until they reach extreme eastern Colorado.
Moisture and the sun are the fuel for thunderstorm development. I looked at surface CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) across all models. The best way to describe CAPE is the energy necessary for thunderstorm development.
There is no single answer for correlating CAPE readings with thunderstorms. Generally, the higher you go in elevation, the lower the required CAPE values are. At 6000-7000 ft, you would be looking for CAPE values in excess of 500. If you know what CAPE is and are from the Midwest down to Texas, you are likely laughing right now. In Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas, it is not unusual to see CAPE values of 2000!
They can laugh at us for low CAPE, and we can laugh at them for panicking with 2-4 inches of snow, seems fair to me! The models still have about 18 hours to come to a better consensus. I don’t expect that to happen, but I will check in early Tuesday.