07/05/ 26
When is the monsoon going to start? What happened to Super El Niño? When is it going to rain even a little? Does this summer tell us anything about the coming winter?
There is an outside chance we could see a few drops of rain Monday and Tuesday. But it is a “so you’re saying we got a chance” chance. I don’t want to think about the potential for a dry thunderstorm. In fact, I was silently thinking yesterday that this has been right up there among the worst weeks I have ever experienced; the only way it could get worse is if we were evacuated because of a fire. But I did not say it out loud, so moving on…
For me, if the monsoon has not arrived by mid-July, it is late. So we are going to be cutting it close, assuming something happens by next weekend- which I can’t really say right now. But I am watching for signs.
As you have read many times in my posts, dry likes to stay dry, wet likes to stay wet. It takes a lot to break a stubborn pattern like this one. Ideally, a little leftover moisture from a dying hurricane or tropical depression curving into the Southwest. According to the National Hurricane Center, no tropical development is expected in the next 7 days. So that is highly unlikely.
Looking out towards the end of the GFS and European model runs, they both see moisture arriving after the 17th. The 17th is a long way away for operational models. So I have to shelve that for now. In fact, I read that “they” are going to reduce the number of East Pacific hurricanes expected this year. Simple math: the CPAC/EPAC season starts earlier than the Atlantic season, so technically part of their season is already gone.
Long-range models are better suited to examining potential pattern changes. So let’s look at some of those.
Here are the extended positive precipitation anomaly forecasts for our region. These are not the forecasted amounts; add them to the average rainfall amounts for those weeks. Weeks start today and continue.
Week 1 European (brown equals negative anomaly)
GFS Week 1
European Week 2-Remember we discussed after July 17th
GFS Week 2
European Week 3 (Green equals positive anomaly)
GFS Week 3
European Week 4
GFS Week 4
European Week 5
GFS Week 5
Cumulative 5-week anomaly- European
GFS
Lots of graphics! In short, the Long Extended GFS and European show a period of above-average rainfall starting after the 17th through at least August 8th! Let’s hope!
Next up: Super El Niño (Formerly known as Very Strong El Niño).
Here is a little piece of information that you won’t get anywhere else. For an El Niño to be officially logged in history, it has to continue showing anomalously above-average sea surface temperatures for 7 months! So right now, it can only be referred to as “El Niño-like conditions. NOAA’s (CPC) Climate Prediction Center says there is a 63% chance of a Very Strong El Niño developing as we approach winter. They release ENSO (El Niño) updates once a month; the next should be out a week from tomorrow.
Whether it beats our 2015-2016 Very Srong El Nino, (strongest peak on record). 1997-1998 is the second strongest on record followed by 1982-1983. I remember trying to drive from Iowa to Colorado around Christmas of 1982 through a massive ice storm in Nebraska.
Here is the bad news, historically El Ninos don’t treat us well. The heaviest snowfall years in our area were neither El Ninos, nor La Ninas. The heaviest snow in our area has fallen during Neutral ENSO years, often called “La Nada”.
That being said El Nino does not guarantee a bad snow year. too early to worry. Plus according to NOAA there is a 37% chance we will not have a Very Strong El Nino this year.
I was just proof reading and thought I better address my horrible week comments. A week ago I got the question I was not quite prepared for. “Who are you?” At first I thought she was joking, it only took a couple of minutes for me to realize that was not the case. I quickly grabbed an old picture of from 33 years ago, and said, “See this guy, that’s me, and beautiful lady with me is you”. She has not said anything like that since. Compounding the week, we determined she must of accidentally thrown away her dental hardware, if it was difficult to communicate before this made even more difficult.