7/18/26 Saturday 5:00 am
Yes, there were totals yesterday. Congratulations Telluride. To be fair, GFS was the only model that got that right yesterday.
Here are Telluride totals:
Fir Street 1.01″
Columbia Ave 0.87″
Willow 0.86
Deep Creek 0.69
Laurel 0.63
Mountain Village 0.52
Lower and Mid -elevations:
Durango Rim Dr. 1.01
Durango in town 0.05″ (donut)
Dolores 0.61
Forest Lakes 0.21 & 0.30
I excluded all totals under .0.09.
Today, models highlight the Telluride area again, as well as a big bullseye over Dolores. It seems pretty random, but Dolores has done better than most areas.
Nearly all of the models show less than 0.10″ for lower elevations. The models have been horrible so far this week across the lower and mid-elevations. So that is what I am going to expect. If they are completely wrong, then we will get more as a bonus.
For tomorrow, models are highlighting western La Plata County and eastern Archuleta.
Yesterday, I noticed some changes in the low and high pressure placement. They are responsible for moisture transport. As of this morning, there is another interesting placement. However, the surface map data is always so old that we never really know if it is correct.
The other thing we had working against us yesterday was convection. We had cloud cover (at least at my house) nearly all morning. We need that sun to help destabilize the atmosphere so storms can form. We will see what happens.