7/24/26 Friday Noon
It is a little too early yet today to say whether storms will develop. Yesterday, and the last few days, we have seen late development. I still anticipate some spotty scattered showers today. I keep an eye on the radar, but it often goes from nothing to something. I get the lightning notification, then look back at the radar, and there they are.
As I mentioned the other day, I am already looking forward to winter. Snow forecast posts take longer to prepare. But because you are tracking an existing storm for days before it arrives, it gives the models a chance to converge a couple of days before the event.
Monsoonal/summer showers develop out of nowhere; even if the high pressure and surface(thermal) lows are in ideal locations, you still have to worry about flow direction and steering winds. Throw in our unique terrain, and there is a better chance the models will get it wrong than correct.
Saturday and Sunday both look like there will be better chances of development than what we have seen today (so far anyway). I will post in the morning, hopefully earlier than I did today; hopefully there will be better model agreement than what I am seeing today!
Surprise!!! We got a good one!!