7/27/26 Monday 4:30 am
I was actively watching the radar yesterday. There was an impressive cell that barely missed my neighborhood. But it unloaded in Rafter J/King Mtn. Highly localized. The Edgemont area got hammered yesterday, best totals I have seen there in quite some time!
That seems to be the narrative lately. One area gets hit, while a neighboring area gets missed. I get a lot of emails from people who say things like, “I live very close to the location that you said got an inch, but I got less than half of that”.
Storms have to start and stop somewhere. If you are a weather nerd, I am sure you have seen the ultimate in highly localized storms; some would say that they are the king of storms: tornadoes. Almost everyone has seen videos of tornadoes that completely destroy one farmhouse, and miss the one right next to it.
Whenever I see a huge shift in modeling in less than 24 hours, I have to question whether or not it is an anomaly. I usually wait at least one more model run to get a handle on what changed, and how it will affect us.
The last two runs from the European show a dramatic decrease in precipitation chances today. With storms only forming over the highest terrain. The other models have also shifted. I looked at the surface maps; they do look like high and low pressure have shifted further north, likely keeping the circulation that draws in the moisture north of us.
After all of the time I spent yesterday researching the potential “gradual” and “temporary” change to drier conditions. The models changed their mind overnight. So, back to the drawing board.
Uncertainty is not unusual with these afternoon thunderstorms. But if I had to make a call solely on this morning’s model data for this afternoon, I would say most mid-elevation and low-elevation areas have a very low chance of storms this afternoon.
The hard data across the area, high dewpoints, and significant residual moisture would tell me thunderstorm chances are higher than what the models are portraying.
I will post again after the morning models generate.
Here are yesterday’s totals in inches for areas that exceeded the 0.20-inch threshold.
West
Rd23.75 0.32
Kline 0.30
Trappers-Thunderbird 0.48
Rafter J
S Elk Run 0.39
Mountain Top Rd 0.37
CastleRdg Dr 0.81 -I watched this on radar!
Far View Rd 0.55
South
S Skylane 0.54
Walker Ln 0.22
Rainbow Rd(2) 0.41
East
Pagosa Area
Cactus Dr .54
Backcountry Dr 0.58
Scenic Ave 0.21
Glen Eaton 0.39
Wilderness Dr 0.38
W. Log Hill Rd 0.78
Harmon Ave 1.11
Central
West Bayfield 0.83
Garnet Wy 0.58
Hawks Meadow Dr 0.28
Vallecito CR 501 at East Creek 0.95
Elk Meadow Rd 0.31
Durango
Crestview Dr 0.25
Junction 0.23
Edgemont*
The Iron King Rd 1.28
Terra Blue Way 1.55
Edgemont Meadows 2.01
Calico Trail 1.19
Rd 250 0.32
Rd 250 0.37
Hermosa
550 RR MP463 0.25
Burnett Haul Rd 0.34
Rd 250 North End 0.22
White Water Dr 0.50
North
Columbine Rd 0.45
Ouray
State Hwy 361 0.40
Eagle Ct 0.59
My next post will be between noon and 3 pm.