Thursday 8/13 4:00 am
Yesterday, I remarked, “Is it a miss, or a late bloomer?” Fortunately, it wasn’t a complete miss. But the Durango Donut Forcefield was strong yesterday. I was looking at the radar and satellite imagery yesterday afternoon, yelling, “Come on!”
For today, models are not in consensus. Not even close. They are a mess (what else is new).
I don’t usually use precipitation forecasts from these daily models this time of year. I use them as guidance to determine the likelihood that storms will develop.
Here is the European model’s 24-hour precipitation forecast.
Contrast that with the NAM Hi-Res model.
Looking at other parameters, PWATs and Dew Point support storm development. Also, next week is up in the air as to which day storms will return. One day at a time for now!
I was asleep when the selective storms slipped into several sites across the forecast area. Most of last night’s storm arrived/developed after 8 pm in the West and Central portions of the forecast area. There was a thunderstorm complex in NW Arizona late yesterday that I believe rotated in last night. If I see that again this afternoon, I will let you know.
Central
Glacier: 0.25″
Co Rd 521: 0.32″
West Bayfield: 0.40″
Lake Simpatico: 0.26″
Pinetree Dr: 0.23″
Vallecito: 0.58″
McCoy Creek Dr: 0.21″
Edgemont Meadows Rd: 0.22″
Box Canyon Farm: 0.38″
Co Rd 250: 0.24″
Hermosa Meadows Rd: 0.24″
North
Silverton: 0.73″
Elektra Lake Lakewood Dr: 0.79″
Elektra Lake Spruce Meadow Dr: 0.76″
Columbine Rd: 0.51″
Alta Lakes Road: 0.41″
Sundance Ln: 0.28″
E Columbia Ave: 0.31″
N Fir St: 0.28″
West
Hesperus: 0.47″
Brandon’s Gate Northeast: 0.37″
Echo Basin: 1.17″
East Mancos: 0.29″
Co Rd H: 0.46″
Kline: 0.38″
South
Thunderbird Rd: 0.27″
Co Rd 302: 0.35″
East
None
I will check in later.