8/22/26 Saturday 4:30 am
For today, will it be a repeat performance of what actually happened? Or will we get what the models forecasted yesterday but didn’t materialize? I felt pretty good about the forecast 24 hours ago. But then the model updated, and as I explained in my afternoon post, my forecast confidence crashed.
For example: Here was yesterday’s forecast between noon and six pm yesterday.
Here is today’s forecast between noon and six pm
They look very similar. So, as I just said, will it be a repeat performance of what actually happened? Or will it do what the models forecasted yesterday but didn’t materialize?
The model run you see above is slightly more convincing than yesterday’s. Similar, but a little different.
Behind the scenes, the current surface map shows the same stationary front I saw yesterday across the eastern plains of Colorado. However, it has retrograded about 120 miles west from yesterday. The northern portions of the front are right up against the foothills north of Denver.
I am also seeing support from the new short-term model for the latest European run. This new short-term model is experimental for four more months before it replaces the NAM3k model.
This morning’s dew points are the same as yesterday; current PWATs are higher than yesterday.
This current setup provides better support for the higher elevations. I am going to stick with isolated coverage for today, favoring the higher elevations.
There will be another afternoon update or two this afternoon.