8/31/26 Monday 5:00 am
For today, it looks like the showers that develop are primarily going to occur across the northern portions of the forecast area. More on the forecast in a moment…
I saw a few totals on the board this morning. To be honest, I don’t have time to sort through them all this morning because I opted for the extra hour of sleep. I am pretty sure I have “waiting for the monsoon fatigue”. Honestly, it started pretty well, but follow-through was disappointing this month.
The only thing that would rekindle my enthusiasm is a few back-to-back days of heavy rain.
One of the first things I look at in the morning (besides the outside pavement) is a comparison between the radar and the European model. Today the European model verified pretty well. Verification means comparing the model forecast to the current conditions. Here is the radar:
Here is the forecast:
If you scroll between them, you can see the model did pretty well with current conditions. The bigger question is, will it be correct today? That basically comes down to my interpretation of what the model is trying to say.
On the surface, this looks pretty good for today.
But that is and has been the trap.
If you look at this image, I have outlined the area of lighter precipitation. It is basically the entire southern and central forecast area, plus all of the western and eastern locations. My concern is that this precipitation may not even reach the ground.
I have a difficult time cheering this model run on. Monsoon fatigue… Unfortunately, it does not get much better the rest of the week; maybe Friday and Saturday we could see something.
Rather than complaining or skipping posts, I am going to tackle some more topics as I did with my El Niño update yesterday. Overall, people seemed to enjoy that.