9/16/26 Wednesday 1:30 pm

The models initialized well and delayed the onset of showers due to the cloud cover that has been in place most of the day. Models increased PWAT forecasts, now showing portions of La Plata County hitting 345% of average tomorrow morning. Might be a record; I have never seen it before.

With the delay, they have also extended showers into Friday, which would likely mean residual moisture will stick around to fuel storms on Saturday. Sunday still looks pretty calm. We’ll see.

Radar looks, well, interesting, right now. Light showers appear to be retrograding (east-to-west) into the SE portion of the forecast area (eastern La Plata and Archuleta Counties).

Now we just need to be patient and let it come together. I will be up earlier tomorrow so I can get the update out right away.

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