9/28/26 Monday 2-4 pm
I might start doing that; usually, I start writing long before I finish because I wait for additional model runs. Some folks were going by the time I started writing, thinking they were getting the email late.
One other thing before I start. Don’t send me totals until Thursday
Models are not initializing well. Some areas have already had more today than certain models forecast for the entire event ( I am at 1.60″).
This tells me one of two things.
Either we are going to see much more rain than forecasted. We have a couple of more days left. If that is the case, and we can get the moisture safely, I am all for it. That being said, if we continue at today’s rate, many areas will end up with 5 or more inches.
But years of experience remind me that sometimes even the most accurate models are “right for the wrong reason.” It happens a lot in the winter. They will forecast a certain amount of precipitation over 3 or 4 days. Then a wobble or change in a low-pressure system changes course; the next thing you know, you don’t get the 3 or 4 continuous days of precipitation forecasted. You may have a lull and take a day off, then the next day you get another full day of precipitation. Then it departs the area early.
So you end up with the amount originally forecast for the event, but the model was wrong because precipitation fell only 2 of the 4 days. That’s why I call it “right for the wrong reason”. Keep that in mind as we head into what I hope will be a very productive winter.
It’s confusing, but the hurricane ensemble models lead the next deterministic (regular) run of the model. The new Euro was out at noon. The Euro Ensemble Multi-Model takes longer to compute. It will dictate what’s in the next deterministic run, which will be out after 6 pm.
Anyway, the latest European Ensemble parameter for Tropical Cyclone Tracks just upped the ante on what I shared in my second morning update. It’s showing a further westward track than the last. It also confirmed landfall at 26n.
I will be back in the morning.