9/28/26 Monday 4:30 am
Flood watch will be in effect at 6 a.m., lasting through Wednesday at 6 a.m. This may be extended…
It’s going to be a busy day. The suspicion that it would start later was correct, but I think that is about to change. While I wait for the update, Euro run, here is what’s going on.
Here is Polo, taking its time, but it’s heading further north than prior forecasts. A further-north landfall could have significant implications for us. More on that in a moment.
Here is the latest “Cone,” updated at 3 am.
Yesterday, the anticipated landfall location was 24.5n. Now it is 26n. That is significant for its trajectory.
Here are some live radar images.
This shows the tap; this moisture has been primarily remnants of Odalys. Polo moisture will start to mix throughout the day.
This regional shot (above) shows how highly convective this is in Arizona right now.
Here is the local shot at 5:45 am
We are just on the leading edge.
Last night’s Euro released around midnight, initialized better than the overnight run that just came out. So I need to wait for the next NHC update on Polo’s track and landfall coordinates before making an assessment.
I mentioned the significance of the further north landfall. Further north=further west. Here was the rainfall event forecast from the Euro based on the further north landfall.
Here is the event forecast for the further-south landfall.
Still significant, especially given all the anomalies our local terrain gives us from these subtropical events.
I don’t have a particular update schedule for today. But it will mirror the National Hurricane Center updates.