10/8/26 Thursday 4 am
There is a lot to unpack this morning. So much so that I don’t really trust anything I am seeing beyond Sunday — and I am not 100% sure about Sunday’s forecast.
If what I am seeing is close to correct, we will have to officially start the (Rachel/Simon/Cold front#1/Cold front #2) event totals on Saturday, which technically is the day the pattern change starts. It is a lot to process: 4 events, each with different variables, each of which can affect each other and ultimately our weather next week.
Today
More of the same, slight chances of afternoon showers, blah blah blah.
Saturday
Shower chances increase throughout the day, favoring elevations above 8,500 feet. Shower chances really crank up Saturday night, again, if I can beleive what I am seeing.
Sunday Durango Marathon
Light rain with a chance of periods of moderate rain in the morning, expanding in coverage in the afternoon and evening hours.
That is it. That is as far as I can go this morning.
As I said, I am trying to digest everything I am seeing. The Tropical Cyclone Track models are doubling down on a further west Rachel landfall. Right now, it looks like Rachel wants to visit San Diego, then head up to Vegas.
No, that does not mean we get missed, not at all. Low-end models show an inch, while more complex, higher-resolution models show 3+ inches, with pockets exceeding 5 inches.
This is probably a good time to stop for now. There is too much to cover without seeing the next set of model runs. I will talk more about this synoptic traffic jam later today.