If you are confused by my mid-morning post, you should be. I hit Save Draft instead of Publish with on my early morning update–sorry been running on 3:40 min sleep today.
10/13/26 Tuesday 3:00 am
I couldn’t get my thoughts together well enough to post an update yesterday afternoon. Honestly, it would have been more rambling than content. I am going to get going on that Sus page. It won’t take long; I just have to make a few decisions. I woke up in a panic today realizing it’s her birthday on Saturday; I am not sure how to handle that, anyway.
The evening models initialized better than I thought, but not great. The latest European will be out at 5:45 am. I am expecting it to initialize better now that we finally have some movement to our west!
Long story short, nothing happened yesterday afternoon. As I explained yesterday, the model errors were resulting from the low pressure camped out over Las Vegas, and until it started moving, the models would be wrong.
This was Monday at 3 pm (no movement).
Monday at 6 pm (no movement)
Monday 9 pm FINALLY
Tuesday 3 am (latest, but very little movement in 6 hours)
I will be watching the tilt of this trough. At the moment, it is a “stand-up cold front”. If it leans forward, it will be positively tilted, which means it is weakening and will move very quickly. If it leans back, it will move slowly and strengthen.
Normally, in a morning post, I’d reference overnight model runs. None of that matters right now, until I can see these models acknowledging the trough movement (initializing). That is when I step away and wait an hour for the overnight European model to be released.
Update 5:45 am
Pretty good initialization from the European. I’m still amazed at the amount of precipitation the models expect to fall, both rain and snow. If this consensus solution verifies, it will be one of the best examples of “right for the wrong reasons” I have ever seen. For now, I am going to keep my eyes off the surface maps, and hope they are accurate. If the NWS issues a Winter Weather Advisory, it is unlikely they will do so in advance. Rather, they will wait and see how bad it gets.