10/16/26 Friday 4:00 am
I thought there would be a little more weather “forecaster downtime” before the models reached conclusions about the next big event.
But consensus is across the board.
This is NOAA’s NBM. It’s a high-resolution model and typically overly conservative with precipitation.
GFS-Onboard, but it seems to be thinking too hard about it, more than the other models. It fluctuates run-to-run in how it handles terrain, while keeping the big picture. Its terrain struggles are exactly why I always weight the GFS lowest in my snow forecasts. Regardless, it increased its forecast totals.
European: It also increased its forecast totals.
Canadian: It also increased its forecast totals
At this point, I can see that heavier precipitation is forecast to arrive late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Models, however, are seeing pulses of lighter precipitation before the heavy stuff arrives. Right now, those first pulses look like they’ll arrive on Sunday.
I have a lot of questions, but it’s too early to put too much effort into finding answers that don’t exist yet.
I can’t yet determine how much extra tropical moisture is tied to the low. That will have a major effect on snow levels. It will be the difference between feet of snow at the pass levels or lots of slush.
Overall, I am very encouraged, nearly cautiously optimistic, but I want to see a few more model runs echoing what I have been seeing the last couple of days. If one model is likely to go off the rails, it’s the GFS; that’s just what it does.