Monday 4 pm

I gave a little nudge in one of my posts the other day, saying I was concerned I wasn’t hearing enough from NWS, CDOT, or EMS in different cities in the forecast area about the upcoming event. I knew word would travel fast if I posted that.

Thankfully, they got on board this afternoon in their discussion:

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and seasonable temperatures to start the work
  week.

- Widespread rain returns Wednesday through Friday.

- The potential for flooding increases on Thursday and Friday
  especially for portions of southeast Utah and southwest
  Colorado.

- Rainfall amounts in the southern mountains range from 1-3
  inches with locally higher amounts possible in the San Juans.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK:

Broad southwesterly flow will dominate the start of the work week,
maintaining moisture advection across the region. Expect a
continuation of cloud cover along with isolated showers through
Tuesday. Modest warm air advection will nudge high temperatures
closer to seasonal normals despite the increased cloud cover. While
localized breezy conditions could accompany collapsing showers,
organized convection is not anticipated.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL LATE-WEEK:

By Wednesday, a strong low pressure system drops southward along the
California coast, while an upper level jet noses into the Four
Corners region. These two features will work in tandem to bring
remnant moisture from what is now Hurricane Trudy into the region,
bringing the return of widespread precipitation chances. Initial
model solutions depict the most likely time period for widespread
showers to be Wednesday night through Thursday night. It is also
important to note that a large majority of the precipitation from
this system will fall as rain, with the pool of colder temperatures
staying well north of the forecast area. As a result, snow levels
will remain high, generally at or above 12,000 feet. Given the
prospect of high-elevation rain falling onto antecedent snowpack and
saturated soils from last week`s precipitation, flash flooding and
hydrologic impacts will be monitored closely as the system
progresses. The highest amounts of rainfall are currently showing up
in the southern mountains where 1-3 inches of rainfall are
possible. The San Juans look to take the brunt from this system
so locally higher amounts are possible. In fact, some of the
river forecasts in that area are reaching flood stage. Ensemble
guidance supports PWATs upwards of 250-300% of normal, providing
another strong signal to monitor for potential impacts. Keep in
mind that the forecast remains fluid this far out, and key
details may shift over the coming days. Stay tuned for updates.

Precipitation chances continue into Friday afternoon, though
coverage will gradually taper off. Meanwhile, the low pressure
system will be absorbed into the main flow, driving a frontal
passage through the area. This will bring cooler temperatures on
Friday, dropping highs by 5 to 10 degrees compared to Thursday and
potentially taking overnight temperatures back below freezing.

 

Then I saw this; I couldn’t be happier about their engagement on this matter! And this GREAT news from LPCG!