10/21/26 Wednesday 3:30 am
Overview
Showers should start moving into the western forecast area this morning, then late morning to around noon across the northern and central portions, and early afternoon in the eastern portions. At least that is what the latest models are forecasting (so it could change a bit)
I have very few changes overall. One thing I am watching is dropping snow levels for Saturday and Sunday. This could change, but for now it looks like they could drop below pass level.
I have given it thought, and I have decided not to treat the weekend totals as a separate event. Models don’t always do a great job defining start and stop times, especially with successive systems.
That is why, even though they are different systems (one ending Friday afternoon and another starting Friday evening), we’ll use model guidance for totals between now and Monday morning. As I said, I am more concerned with the overall totals than trying to determine starts, stops, and lulls.
We have a lot of new people and some longtime followers who need a refresher, so I made cheat sheets for the forecast maps.
T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass
Going forward, I will include these “cheaters” every time I post forecast maps. All of these maps show total liquid equivalent precipitation from Wednesday through Sunday evening
German Model: Further clarification on map locations correlated with forecast amounts shown. 1.65=Telluride, 2.46=Cortez, 5.44=NE of Bayfield near Upper Pine Fire Station number 8, 5.74=Pagosa Springs
NBM (model)
European Model
Canadian Model-Crazy!
GFS AI
I’ll update flood potential mid-morning when the new data is out. I am curious to see if there are any new additions to what we saw yesterday.