10/28/26 Wednesday 5 am (overslept)
Changes:
- The European is slowly going back to a wetter solution
- Latest model runs show more of a “direct hit” starting Sunday
- Models are delaying cold-air infiltration until the moisture is mostly gone on Monday, raising snow levels back to 564 dam (11,000 ft).
- This would increase high-elevation runoff
- I am still leaning on Saturday being a non-event, maybe nuisance rain of 0.10″-0.30″
Sounds scary, but this is one model run; it could be anomalous, or it could be a trend. Still a lot of uncertainty, but it’s an eye-opener.
European
European AI
Canadian: I keep referring to the GFS AI and Canadian as having “crazy” totals. Compared to the other models, their totals look crazy, but the Canadian and GFS AI were the most accurate for the last event.
GFS AI
Canadian
Again, don’t panic; be aware. The next two sets of model runs will tell us whether these are anomalous runs or the new trend.