11/2/26 Monday 5:00 am
I don’t have new flood data to share; there’s a lot of disagreement about whether the rivers have peaked. Most of their peak forecast times have passed, and worse, the current observations are generally higher than their forecasts. Flooding concerns will likely linger today.
This event has been extremely challenging, to say the least. The surface maps have been challenging reality for 24 hours, with wild 3-hour swings making it impossible to track this storm.
I don’t want to spend too much time on this, but here is how NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center plots the maps. Every 3 hours, a computer-generated surface map goes into human hands for interpretation.
These “forecasters” (I use the term they use; at the bottom of all of these maps it says Forecaster: then the person’s name.) They decide if there are errors, then redraw the map based on their interpretations. Every 3 hours, a new forecaster takes over.
The new forecaster looks at the prior human-corrected map, then the computer-generated map, and either agrees with or disagrees with one or both, then plots their own interpretations. Typically they disagree with the previous forecaster.
They struggle the most with every SW storm. In the last 12 hours, I’ve seen a plot show the front entering Colorado, then 3 hours later it’s moved back west into western Utah because a forecaster disagreed with the prior shift.
These Forecasters/Analysts are sitting in College Park, Maryland, trying to interpret and draw synoptic boundaries across some of the most complex terrain in the United States. 99% of them have never been here. It’s crazy.
By ignoring their maps and looking at current conditions, I can see that the front has entered the area. NW flow is fueling snowfall in Telluride; the snow level has dropped to Village level. Opus Hut has dropped to 24 degrees after being in the upper 30s yesterday. It’s snowing in Silverton. The snow is very light at Purgatory snow stake. The snow may increase rapidly when the front passes, then drop off when the flow switches to NNW. I don’t think the main envelope of cold air has made it there yet, just the prefrontal colder air mixing with the residual moisture to generate the snow.
Models indicate that most areas have received the bulk of the precipitation that they are going to get. That cold front will squeeze a generous amount of snow in areas that favor NW flow.
For the rest of this week, there is a slight chance of light mountain snow on Wednesday/night. Then it looks really quiet until around November 12th, but the big story is that it’s starting to look like the second half of November looks snowy!
I don’t know if I will post later today; I had some scares with Sus last night, overnight, and this morning. She is sleeping now, so I was able to get this update out. For those of you who are new, Sus is my wife; she has a rare degenerative neurological disease, and I take care of her full time.