9/28/26 Monday 8 am
The TC track for Polo just dropped. It is continuing to show a westward progression. Suggesting slightly higher totals.
Here was the prior run. I circled in orange the number of members showing a westward progression.
Here is the new run. In red, you can see several more members to the west. This moved the entire control further west.
We will see how that translates to precipitation when the new Euro run comes out around noon.
9/28/26 Monday 4:30 am
Flood watch will be in effect at 6 a.m., lasting through Wednesday at 6 a.m. This may be extended…
It’s going to be a busy day. The suspicion that it would start later was correct, but I think that is about to change. While I wait for the update, Euro run, here is what’s going on.
Here is Polo, taking its time, but it’s heading further north than prior forecasts. A further-north landfall could have significant implications for us. More on that in a moment.
Here is the latest “Cone,” updated at 3 am.
Yesterday, the anticipated landfall location was 24.5n. Now it is 26n. That is significant for its trajectory.
Here are some live radar images.
This shows the tap; this moisture has been primarily remnants of Odalys. Polo moisture will start to mix throughout the day.
This regional shot (above) shows how highly convective this is in Arizona right now.
Here is the local shot at 5:45 am
We are just on the leading edge.
Last night’s Euro released around midnight, initialized better than the overnight run that just came out. So I need to wait for the next NHC update on Polo’s track and landfall coordinates before making an assessment.
I mentioned the significance of the further north landfall. Further north=further west. Here was the rainfall event forecast from the Euro based on the further north landfall.
Here is the event forecast for the further-south landfall.
Still significant, especially given all the anomalies our local terrain gives us from these subtropical events.
I don’t have a particular update schedule for today. But it will mirror the National Hurricane Center updates.
9/27/26 Sunday 1:30 pm
Not much has changed. It looks like the models are slowing the hurricane’s landfall until around 3 pm. The models should know more by the time I put out my morning update.
However:
I should have tomorrow morning’s update published by 6 am (the Euro updates at 5:45 am).
9/27/26 Sunday 4:00 am
For today, just a slight chance of afternoon pop-up showers. Later today/tonight, subtropical moisture will be funneled into the forecast area. A flood watch goes into effect on Monday.
Including the cities of Ridgway, Loghill Village, Telluride, Mountain
Village, Ouray, Lake City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico,
Nucla, Naturita, Norwood, Slick Rock, Cortez, Mancos, Dolores, Dove
Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding, Goulding, Bluff,
Tselakai Dezza, Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White
Mesa, Monticello, La Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and
Canyonlands National Park
1245 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Colorado, including the following areas, Animas
River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest San Juan
Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan River
Basin, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau and
Dallas Divide and southeast Utah, including the following areas,
Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
Southeast Utah.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...Flooding will be possible over burn scars, at low-water
crossings, and along creeks, streams, washes, arroyos and other
flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their
banks. Unpaved roads could become muddy and impassable.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy rainfall, associated with remnant moisture from
Hurricane Polo, are expected to produce numerous showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rain falling on saturated soils and
burn scars could lead to localized flash flooding and rises on
local rivers.
From a local perspective, if you are near a creek, I’d monitor the situation closely. I am looking at you, Vallecito (creek).
——
I have been up a while, having a blast going through models. I will break down the short-term stuff in a minute. But this setup: Polo recurve, followed by what will be known as Rachel, and yes, the potential for another recurve this time into San Diego (great positioning for SW Colorado, still about 10 days out), an early-season cold front or two… Too early to get in too deep here, but does anyone remember October 2011 and October 2018?
I am going to let everyone stew on that while I shift back to this week.
There were a few silly hurricane model runs after my post yesterday. The GFS wins the prize for the worst model run that should never have slipped through the cracks.
Yep. The GFS decides to ignore physics completely. Note the loop-de-loop in the Panhandle, then it gathers strength and marches straight up to Hudson Bay! This is pure meteorological comedy.
I am not going to go through every hurricane model, but the trend shows a track that would bring heavier precipitation to our forecast area than what we saw yesterday. The latest Euro just came in with more aggressive positioning in our favor.
This low seems a little over-developed given its journey. But we will see what the next runs show.
I will be back after noon today.
9/26/26 Saturday 4:00 am
I was asked how I “knew” Hurricane Polo would recurve; I would say it was 50% luck. The other 50% was a couple of other factors. This has been a very, very active Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. So from that perspective, it’s a numbers game. Recurving is not unusual, but it is more likely in an active season. The other factor is how much very warm water is along the coast to fuel its track.
Hurricanes need fuel to do their “job”. What is their job? Their job is to mix warm surface water and draw in cooler water from below. In a Very Strong El Niño year, they have a lot of work to do, even though the warm pool is much further south than the MDR (main development region).
Here are the culprits
Notably, another storm is developing just southeast of Polo. The latest reports show Polo is still a strong Category 5 hurricane; Odalys, which has lost her way, is still a Category 2 hurricane. Odalys will initially be drawn toward Polo; then, when it gets close enough, the low-pressure depth and strong cyclonic flow will rip her apart and start funneling that moisture toward the SW US. That will be the first moisture that reaches landfall.
Here is how the European model initialized overnight.
There are many hurricane models. With flights going through them every day, they have a lot of constantly updated data.
We will start with the forecast tracks.
First up is the European model.
All the hurricane models are similar today, taking the remnants through New Mexico and across SE Colorado. This track would still deliver meaningful precipitation without the catastrophic flooding that may occur in Eastern New Mexico, Eastern Colorado, and the Panhandle area.
Here is the ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System) multi-model forecast. The Naval Research Laboratory developed this system, and it is one of the bellwether hurricane models.
Similar track. This track is dependent on where the storm comes ashore over Baja. A further north landfall would steer the heaviest precipitation closer to our area.
Here is the AI ECMWF, which is simply the European model powered by Google AI.
Similar, but it shows a few model members driving the remnants farther north and into Arizona.
To complicate matters, low pressure is going to be working into the West Coast. This may become the steering mechanism for the remnants.
This is Sunday at 9 pm.
A lot can change in 48 hours, so I am not going to delve into that until tomorrow. Models often rush the progression of low-pressure systems from west to east. If it sits and spins longer than expected, it may pull the remnants on a further west trajectory, which would bring heavier rain over our forecast area.
Time to put the maps in motion to give you a better visual of how it all comes together. I will do a couple of loops from continental to regional to local.
This is from Sunday 3 pm to Monday 3 pm. You can see the moisture being pulled from Odalys towards the Southwest US and into our forecast area.
Monday 3 pm to Tuesday 3 pm
Now I will go back to Monday morning and let it roll until the system moves out on Thursday.
This is probably a good place to stop for now. Please keep in mind this is a very “right now” forecast. So much could change, even in the next few hours, that would change the track.
9/25/26 Friday 4 pm
Thanks for the outreach. It provides a lot of fuel to get through tough days. Don’t think you are bothering me; I read everything, even if I can’t respond to every email.
I think that caregivers tend to have a moat around them, especially with our longest friends/acquaintances. I get it; we all have been there, especially as we get older. I have, for sure. So I don’t take it personally at all; I try to figure out the best way to put friends and family at ease and talk off-subject. The simple dialogue normalizes the struggles.
So, the second I returned, I went straight down the rabbit hole again-anyway.
Point is, remember when I said I was shelving hurricane recurvature speak for a couple of days? That ends tomorrow; I do believe we will get an interaction from Polo, but also from Odalys. Essentially, it looks like Polo eats Odalys, and they track through AZ into New Mexico. Then a trough swings in to race or stall the energy.
There may even be the potential (at the moment) for heavy snow at 9,500 feet. With a pretty Saturday ahead, don’t put off your leaf-peepin drive or hikes. Sunday could be nice, or not by the afternoon. Timing on these crazy-curvers are hard to predict.
We will start using hurricane models to track the recurve tomorrow morning.
Thank you, kind people; looking forward to resuming the chase.
9/24/26
I am ok. But I need a day or two to figure some things out. I am sure everyone knows that when I don’t post when I said I would, it’s because I am dealing with another setback. The last one was only a week or two ago; this one is pretty overwhelming. I am hoping yesterday and this morning were anomalies. If not, and this is the new norm, I’ll have to readjust some routines and keep going.
9/23/26 Wednesday 5 am
0.25″ to 1.50″ fell last yesterday up until midnight. Lower amounts have fallen since. I don’t have a lot to share yet. The overnight lull should end soon. The weather models aren’t doing us any favors right now, so I’ll pivot to the macro picture.
Radar: At first glance, it looks like it is “missing” us. But our radar(s) have a lot of holes, so (as we all well know) it is not always “reflective” of reality.
Current Satellite provides a better snapshot of what is going on.
We have the jet straight overhead. The flow is also being ushered in via low pressure to our southwest and high pressure to our southeast.
Zooming in on that satellite gives a better look
You can see the deeper moisture (green) is actually to our west (for now).
I’ll track everything on that wide-view satellite as the day progresses. I will likely do shorter, more frequent updates today, as I did yesterday.
Don’t forget your umbrella…
9/22/26 Tuesday 5:00 pm
The Euro morning run released at noon initialized well. DWG Command has 0.35″ in the forecast, vs. Euro’s 0.28″ for right now.
Best initialization I have seen from this model in… a while. Fingers crossed this continues!
Polo keeps intensifying. I assume we will soon get an onslaught of “Super Hurricane Polo” stories. It just became a very strong Category 5 with 180 mph winds and 892 mb! That’s big stuff. Interestingly, it has zero movement; it is stationary, still feasting on the warm water. HINT that’s its job…
9/22/26 Tuesday Noon
Before I get started, I thought you would enjoy this: the long-range 46-day total snowfall forecast (before melting). This is through November 6th.
I will probably start posting these long-range forecasts once a week.
Meanwhile, back to our upcoming rain event.
Isolated showers are starting to pop up around the forecast area. Dewpoints are rising, up to 48 degrees here at DWG Command.
Models are not in consensus for this evening. The Euro is showing moderate to heavy rain later today into the overnight hours. The GFS shows isolated light to moderate showers in the same timeframe. By late afternoon tomorrow, the models start looking more similar. The Euro holds the moisture back a little further west; the GFS prefers heavier showers in the eastern portions of the forecast area. Despite that small difference, the moisture depth looks similar.
They are also suggesting a downtick in heavy precipitation for Thursday across the forecast area as the plume shifts east, only to usher in another plume briefly on Friday.
I have very little confidence in any model right now. I do believe we will see showers, heavy at times, throughout the forecast area. My lack of confidence is in the “when and where”. I also have to tell you, it’s not going to improve.
I say this because Hurricane Polo is pumping that moisture toward us. By definition, it’s a moving target. Winds have increased, and pressure continues to drop. It is currently a category 5 with sustained winds of 165 mph and a minimum central pressure of 920 mb.
Every wobble in its track and every pressure change directly affects these models’ forecasts. It is nearly stationary right now, feasting on warm water to fuel its development. Here is the other issue. It is not even supposed to reach Cabo’s latitude until Sunday. So we will likely have days of uncertainty with the models. Taadaa! Next update tomorrow morning.