10/22/26 Thursday 9 am-12 pm
Junction Creek (and all other tributaries to the Animas River)
A couple of things that came up in an email. I have had questions regarding Junction Creek. What I am going to say is not exclusive to Junction Creek. Any creek or ditch draining into the Animas River is going to have the same situation.
With the Animas forecast peak, all tributaries will backwater, slowing drainage and potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. This event will not even be a top 25 event for this location DRGC2(bridge near Powerhouse Science Center). You have likely seen pictures of the historic flooding when 25,000 cfs was recorded in October 1911.
When I, debatably, misspoke about the historic levels, I was referring to DGOC2 (the Animas below the Pump Plant) location. Technically, not a historic flow. But it did not exist many years ago. There are only 18 years of data at this newer location. So, technically, this will be a historic flow relative to the 18 years of data. I should have been clearer, but I want to make sure residents living south of town along the Animas know what to expect.
Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos Discrepancy
Last year, on October 11th, both locations ran much higher than the current forecast peak for this event. After some digging, I found out that, because these events fell outside of the water year, they are still “under review”, which means they will go into the CBRFC data next spring. I will be more careful talking about historic flows, now that I have that background knowledge. I will just include forecast, action stage, and flood stage
Update 10:40 am
The new data is out, and as I expected, everything is going higher…
I included the hydrograph on this one because this is the most dire situation in SW Colorado
San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: I don’t know how or if this will affect travel. Forecast Peak is Friday at 6 am.
Animas-Durango DRGC2 (bridge near Science Center): Now is forecast to surpass Action Stage on Friday at Noon. This will affect all residents along tributaries to the Animas, as well as low-lying ground around Trimble and along 550 to Animas City. Forecast peak is Friday at noon.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 7.07 ft, 7464 cfs (10/23/18Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 5.10 ft, 3286 cfs (10/22/15Z) |
Animas-Durango DGOC2- Below Pump Plant: No data for Action Stage or Flood Stage: Residents South of this location, particularly along La Posta Rd, should treat this as if action stage will be surpassed by Friday at 1 pm.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 8.51 ft, 7782 cfs (10/23/19Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 6.47 ft, 3602 cfs (10/22/16Z) |
La Plata River at Hesperus: Above Action Stage, 3 inches below Flood Stage. Forecast peak 12:00 am Friday
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 5.22 ft, 553 cfs (10/23/06Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 4.75 ft, 327 cfs (10/22/16Z) |
Vallecito Creek: Forecast Peak 12:00 am Friday
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 4.80 ft, 3888 cfs (10/23/06Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 3.39 ft, 1492 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
Los Pinos Above Vallecito: I double-checked with the provisional site. Last year the reading was 7.18 feet with 3400 CFS, FYI. Forecast Peak Friday 6 am.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 7.70 ft, 4195 cfs (10/23/12Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 5.72 ft, 1259 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
Piedra at Arboles: I confirmed on the provisional site; this is forecast to be the 2nd highest level in 110 years.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 8.18 ft, 9446 cfs (10/23/18Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 4.37 ft, 2572 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
| Historical Peak: | 8370 cfs, 1970-09-06 |
Animas at Cedar Hill: Above Action Stage; this would take over the fifth-highest spot in history (I double-checked). Forecast peak Friday at 5 pm
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 9.75 ft, 8190 cfs (10/23/23Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 7.59 ft, 3505 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
La Plata River at CO/NM state line:
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 8.00 ft, 884 cfs (10/23/17Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 4.17 ft, 53 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
I am going to take a short break, then I will do the weather model update.