1/9/16 Friday 5 am

It appears a narrow moderate band of snow arrived overnight from Durango to the east along the 160 corridor into Archuleta County, as I observed on the European model and posted yesterday afternoon.

Given the European model’s nearly 7-mile margin of error, it performed much better than the GFS.

It missed DW2 for the most part compared to what I see on the webcams around and east of Durango. But I am happy that some of you are waking up to snow this morning!

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01/08/26 Thursday 3 pm

I am just saying, don’t be surprised if a couple of inches of snow, or more, fall over the southern portions of the forecast area overnight and tomorrow before moving out of the area in the afternoon.

There is a big divide between the GFS and European at moment. GFS has more snow in the northern forecast area (north of Purgatory).  The European model actually stretches the snow from New Mexico (Farmington) into SW La Plata County, Durango, Bayfield, 240 corridor up to Vallecito, Forest Lakes, all of Archuleta County along 160 up to Wolf Creek. Enhanced snow would develop above 7,200 feet.

NWS appears to be backing the GFS, increasing the snowfall totals for the mountains by an additional 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into tomorrow.

Maybe both will be right, that’s what I am rooting for!

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01/09/26 Thursday 2:30 am

No spinning this, the closed low that came ashore yesterday is already parked between Santa Fe and SE Colorado.

A shortwave trough is providing energy to fuel some mountain snow showers, while the cold front is still back in Nevada.

12 hours ago, I noted the lack of run-to-run consistency in the models and decided to hold off on an extended forecast.

Looks like a little snow has fallen at DWG HQ since I woke up, less than half an inch. Purgatory appears to have accumulated just under 2 inches as of 4 am. Moderate snow is falling around Telluride and light snow is falling around Wolf Creek.

As the colder air moves in, it may push some drier air ahead of it, which would temporarily shut down the precipitation. As the trough approaches, snow should redevelop, but favor the NW San Juans: Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray, and even Silverton may also get in on the action if the moisture gets trapped in the Valley before the cold air arrives, resulting in an overrunning event.

At best, NW San Juans are likely to see an event total of less than 8 inches. Purgatory could end up with 4 to 6 inches. Wolf Creek is a bit of a wild card but likely in the 3 to 6 inch range.

If the lower and mid-elevations end up with 1 to 3 inches, I would now consider that a win.

What we originally hoped for with all the pieces coming together can no longer happen. Could other pieces regroup at the last minute to produce enhanced precip across the entire forecast area? Sure. But I am not betting on it.

This has evolved into a “sometimes it just snows” event. It is winter, by the way, even though it does not seem like it.

All is not lost. I still see signs of a reversal before winter is over. It will likely come up after another bout of warm weather, briefly, before the pattern flips.

If I see an abrupt shift throughout the day, I will post.

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01/07/26 Wednesday 3 pm

The all-important HiRes NAM 3km model shifted its snowfall forecast for the entire event from this :    (By the way, if you are new, this is inches of snow, the colors correlate with scale)

 

To this in a 6-hour period. The difference? In the first one, the closed low was offshore; in the second, the low was onshore at initialization.

So here is what I am going to do. I will be up early and post with the latest data. This is a two-phase storm with phase two forecasted to be stronger. I expect snow when you wake up, but minimal impact early on, so it won’t be too late for me to post my expectations for event totals.

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1/7/26 Wednesday 5 am

I have been studying the models this morning, most show the closed low coming ashore in Northern Baja between 10 am and 2 pm today.

The system will have two components: a shortwave arriving overnight through Thursday morning, followed by a more potent trough later on Thursday.

There is a pretty good chance we will see a Winter Weather Advisory for the lower elevations before both systems depart the area. Southern mid-elevations may receive as much precipitation as the mountains, but snow ratios will offset the overall totals, especially on Thursday evening. As I have been saying, not a big storm, but an extremely efficient snow producer. The most efficient we have seen this season (for this discussion, “efficient” means making the most of little).

My initial take is 2 to 6 inches across the southern half of La Plata County. Perhaps 4 to 10 inches of snow across the mountains by late Friday. Mid-elevations will likely be between those totals. I am going to forecast the two-day totals for this event.

I will leave you with that, so I can “do what I do,” and I plan to get my initial forecast out by this afternoon.

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1/6/26 Tuesday 3 am

As I mentioned yesterday, the models will struggle with accuracy until they have something on land to track. The latest data from all models points to midday on Wednesday for that closed low to come ashore south of San Diego and track northeast.

I was surprised by the brief light snow flurries that fell across the mid- and lower elevations yesterday morning. “Sometimes it just snows…”

The most significant change in the last 24 hours is in the GFS model. The GFS is now all in on the late-week storm. At the same time, the European model is now playing with lower totals. We should see better alignment among the models tomorrow afternoon.

I will try to stay neutral until tomorrow, but I am excited to see how this comes together. As for low-elevation snow, I believe it will be all or none. I do not see this as a warm, rainy, high-elevation event; instead, I see a hit-or-miss. I am also still in the camp that if it does “hit”,  it will not be a big storm, but it will be efficient in snow production.

In other news, the MJO is still expected to emerge in about 10 days, so after this storm, we will have plenty to discuss!

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1/5/26 Monday 3:30 am

For today, expect flurries over the higher elevations, mainly north of Electra Lake.

Yesterday, I noted that the models diverged and moved to neutral on the late-week storm. Twenty-four hours later, it appears the GFS may be trying to compromise with the European.

This would bring higher-quality snow to the mountains instead of the slop we have been getting from SoCal leftovers. It would also bring some much-desired snow to the lower elevations. At this point, it may not be enough for an advisory, but it would be a welcome change!

Update 4:30 am

The new European run is out. It shows heavier precipitation in the lower elevations than in all recent runs. This is certainly positive; however, the closed low-pressure system responsible for the moisture component does not come ashore until Wednesday morning at the earliest. At that point, the models will be able to better determine its track.

I will try to remain neutral, but I am now very much looking forward to the model runs as they are released.

Looking further out, it looks like we may get some movement with the MJO around 1/14. Most models show it finally emerging from the circle of death around that time period.

After this system, I will be able to resume our MJO discussion!

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1/4/26 Sunday 5 am

Today

Warmer temps will be back on track today. Flurries are possible across higher-elevation areas at or above 10,000 feet.

Tomorrow

A weak system in northwest flow will deliver anything from flurries to a couple of inches of snow for the NW San Juans. I have my eye on a couple of models highlighting Lizard Head Pass for a better chance of accumulation over 3 inches. I will have plenty of time to re-evaluate that tomorrow morning before the precipitation chances increase by midday.

Late Week Storm

After a couple of days of agreement, the models have decided to go their separate ways and pursue their own solutions for the late-week storm. Officially, my cautiously optimistic tone is back to neutral until the models come back together.

What I am seeing is the European model still indicating a storm that would deliver advisory snow amounts for both the mountains and lower elevations. That while the GFS now takes the moisture source south a few hundred miles, we get nothing.

Nothing has changed with the current conditions or current locations of the systems involved. Either the GFS is setting the trend, or it is lost. I have been reviewing many more models than I usually do this morning for clues, and finding none.

It is not unusual to see some divergence, but when the systems are still over the ocean, the models cannot converge on a solution. Hopefully, by Tuesday, we will see the models get back together for improved guidance.

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1/3/26 Saturday 3:30 am

It looks like my suspicions regarding the surface maps were correct, as low elevation precipitation ground to a halt yesterday morning. The biggest fail from the weather models was Wolf Creek getting 5 inches of snow out of the storm.

NNW flow kicked in as expected.

Purgatory 2 inches

Molas 4 inches

Monument (snow slide south of Ouray) 5 inches

Coal Bank 7 inches

Red Mountain 8.5 inches

DWG HQ official total was 0.51 inches of liquid. Similar totals were common in my area with slightly enhanced precipitation rates in the westerly (transitional) flow.

Temperatures will rebound over the next couple of days.  Sunday and Monday, low pressure spinning off the coast of Southern California will usher in moisture to our area. On Monday, energy well to the north may combine to produce flurries to light snow mostly over the NW San Juans. At this point, I expect minimal (if any) impacts.

The next storm, the one I referred to yesterday as a “proper snowstorm,” could be arriving mid to late week.  The models show this possibility as a result of a large trough flattening the ridge, moving arctic air into the region.

It’s the classic: cold air infiltration into moist air from the Pacific — the infamous “perfect storm” setup. Not necessarily huge, but very productive, high-ratio snow totals.

Sounds too good to be true? After what we have experienced this year so far? Of course, it sounds too good to be true!  Is it possible? Sure, it is. It has to happen sometime…

All of the models are on board so far, which is good. So I will be cautiously optimistic. However, while the models are on board, their timing varies. The GFS is fastest, favoring late Wednesday into Thursday. The other models favor Thursday-Friday evening.

Another factor favoring the storm is the High School Athletics schedule. Just as holidays seem to attract storms, so does traveling for HS athletic events.  It is all part of my “Most Inconvenient Timing Scenario”. Simply put, storms tend to occur whenever groups of people have to drive over the passes.

I will monitor the models closely to see if any diverge from the stormy solution. I will be posting daily this week, so make sure you check in daily for the latest!

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1/2/26 Friday 4:30 am

As for liquid-equivalent precipitation, the storm is outperforming the model forecasts.

There is a thick layer of warm air between 6,000 feet and 8,200 feet from 38 to 34 degrees. The snow level is just below 9,000 feet.  Very sloppy.

Conditions are getting tricky over Red Mountain and Wolf Creek passes due to sub-freezing temperatures.  Wolf Creek has dropped to 24 degrees, which is in the optimal range for snow production.  How did all of the models miss that?

When your forecast is for nearly zero, it is not difficult to produce an anomaly!

The weak cold front and trough appear to be back in Western Utah. Assuming that placement is correct, we could have several more hours before the precipitation leaves the area. If it is wrong, and that is not unusual, it may be closer to shutting off the SW flow across the forecast area than we think.

This front is also the catalyst for heavier precipitation in the NW San Juans, where moderate snow is already falling. Also, note, the next storm becoming occluded over the Pacific. That storm looks fairly weak, with a Monday/Tuesday potential arrival.

Later in the week–late Wednesaday/Thursday through the day Friday, I am starting to see signs of a pattern change, with increasing chances of a “proper” snow storm for the entire forecast area, I am trying to keep expectations low, but it is encouraging.

I will be monitoring surface map for updates and will post if I see the morning CPC crew correct any surface model errors. That will give us better details on the timeline.

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