12/15/25 Monday 3:30 am

Current Weather Outlook

A couple of systems will jump the ridge and head into the Northern Mountains (think Steamboat). A few may drop south enough to deposit a couple of inches in the Central Mountains. If the NW San Juans are very lucky, they might get a few low-impact flakes.

❄️ 📚 Weather Education Update

There is a very good reason these storms are showing up when they do, and it correlates with Tropical Activity near Africa, thousands of miles away!

For my first topic, I’ve chosen one of the most important yet often overlooked weather phenomena. It has distinct seasonal variability, being strongest for most from December to February; however, I have found it correlates well with our area from December through May.

I was recently reminded of this topic by an email from a follower, and it’s highly relevant right now. Long-time followers may remember me talking about it: The MJO, or the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

I’ll be breaking this down into a few separate posts. It’s a lot to process—too much to drop on everyone in one lengthy post and still keep your attention. Look for the first part to be published on Tuesday or Wednesday.

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12/13/25 Saturday 5 am

It has been a very challenging and demanding week for me. I just caught up on my emails and have picked a couple of topics to discuss over the next few days.

There are no changes to thinking that it will be at least around Christmas before we get a break.

Here is the model initialization for 5 am.

Notice the thick black line from the South Dakota/Nebraska border, cutting through Wyoming into Western Montana.

It is not as it appears. It is not a single thick line but multiple thin lines of pressure stacked on top of each other. This demonstrates the strength of the high-pressure dome/ridge we are trapped under. It also shows the rails for the storm train/track (just northeast of the ridge).

You know I rely heavily on the European model, but it is at its worst (performance) in our region, given the current atmospheric conditions. The GFS handles it a bit better.

The GFS is still showing a Christmas Storm, which would be a sloppy mess in the lower elevations and good snow for the Ski areas. The European takes a couple days later and brings a much smaller storm.

Both models tend to get more accurate once they are under ten days out, so this week we should start seeing a better, more accurate forecast.

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12/10/25 Wednesday 3:30 am

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❄️ I Am Back, But The Weather Is Not (The Pre-Christmas Blues)

It was a good visit with Susan’s friend from Florida. It was eye-opening for her, and for me, it was a learning experience. I witnessed her patience and her ability to cut through during some of the minor episodes and communicate with her. There is not a lot you can do during more challenging episodes. I will hold off on anything further until after her appointment two weeks from today.

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😴 Seriously Boring Pattern Takes Hold

As for the weather, we are fully engulfed in a seriously boring pattern—more common than not this time of year. The pre-Christmas blues as we know them. The sky is not falling (neither is the precipitation).

Early winter conditions persist with the big trough in the eastern half of the US. Snowball fights in New Orleans the other day, 25 below zero in North Dakota, and a stubborn storm train that surfs the ridge over the West and drops the systems into the Midwest and East.

I am left with very little to discuss. My plan is to blend some weather education and talk about the Christmas Storm over the coming days.

My focus for the coming posts will be on specific topics based on your feedback, as well as a few of my personal favorites.

As we get closer to the Christmas Storm, I will dig deeper into it. So please, let me know what topics you are wondering about. I don’t do hypotheticals, but that leaves plenty of other interesting subjects!

Did I mention I am expecting a storm on or near Christmas?

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12/6/25 Saturday 3 am

⚠️ Red Mountain Pass Closure & Model Verification: GFS Wins (For Now)

After nearly 2 feet of snow from Ouray to Red Mountain, there are scheduled maintenance operations today.

“Southwest Colorado — US Highway 550 Red Mountain Pass between Silverton and Ouray will be closed to travel on Saturday, Dec. 6, while the Colorado Department of Transportation performs safety-critical winter maintenance operations. Saturday morning’s operations are anticipated to have minor traffic impacts with delays beginning at 8 a.m. between Mile Points 80 and 81.” “Minor impacts,” of course, are relative to people’s patience levels.

FYI they are planning additional operations on Tuesday.

Interestingly enough, the US GFS model is the only one to verify at this hour. Verification occurs when a model forecasts a specific condition at a particular hour, and that condition actually occurs. In this case, the GFS showed snow starting in the northern forecast area from Purgatory to the north. The GFS is correct; it is snowing at Purgatory and Telluride, and it is not yet snowing at Wolf Creek.

Speaking of snowing at Purgatory, I can’t confirm the recent rumors that their new webcam shows AI generated snowfall. I did not make this up, I got a few emails about it. I am of course kidding about the “can’t confirm” however, I was a little disappointed with the new cam (kind of like our “radar”), it sure looks like their old snowstake with a ring doorbell and an Amazon Basics led flashlight…

NWS Advisory & Forecast Outlook

Back to the storm, NWS has used the feedback from last week’s storm to issue a Winter Weather Advisory. They know they underforecast the systems and are concerned that another sneaky storm will overperform what the models are showing — which in many models is nothing.

Northwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, and Lake City 139 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 9000 FEET…

• WHAT: Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

• WHERE: Northwest San Juan Mountains.

• WHEN: Until 11 PM MST this evening.

I am not one who likes a lot of model disagreement but I will play along with this scenario. I have also been seeing enhanced precipitation for Ouray, if it occurs maximum potential would be slightly above the 12 -15 inch level. If not I would be more comfortable with 4 to 8 for both Telluride and Ouray.

Purgatory is a tough call. NW flow systems underperform at Purgatory and Wolf Creek. I suppose 2 to 4 max is possible at Purgatory in perfect conditions. That would surprise me though. Less at Wolf Creek today.

The further north you go the better chance of seeing a few flurries or light snow. But I do not expect anything in the lower elevations this time.

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12/5/25 Friday 1:45 pm

I wanted to start by saying thank you to the secret elf who cleared my driveway and sidewalk yesterday! You saved me a lot of time as I’ve been busy getting everything ready for a visitor—an old friend of Susan’s who is arriving tomorrow.

As for the northern storm arriving tomorrow, the models still have a wide range, predicting anywhere from 1 to 10 inches of snow. That forecast is not one I’m comfortable releasing. I plan to wait another 12 hours and will do my best to put a reliable forecast together at that time!

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12/5/25 Friday 3:00 am

🌨️ Nice Storm!

Here are the residential reports

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12/4/25 Thursday 3:30 am

🌨️ Nice Storm! The Next One: Northerly Flow & Sneaky Snow

I will put together all of your totals today and try to get the storm wrap-up out tomorrow. Two important things:

• Make sure you only use the big blue link at the bottom of the page, and make sure to include your location when submitting a report.

• Would love to hear from Silverton. I think the big winner will be Ouray (they were at 22+ yesterday afternoon).

Next Storm Details: Saturday’s Arrival & Model Disagreement

For now, let’s talk about the next storm. The main storm will be well north of us; however, the southerly tail of the storm looks like it should drop far enough south to affect the northern portions of the forecast area from Purgatory to the north. The further north, the greater the impact.

The models agree that after a chance for flurries Friday night, the storm will move in on Saturday morning. They currently disagree on the forecasted amounts, which vary from a couple of inches to well over a foot.

⚠️ Potential for a Mini-Gorge Event

This could be another sneaky high ratio mountain event. Ouray, you may be favored again with another Mini-Gorge Event. Gorge Events essentially are northerly upslope flow from Ridgway to Red Mountain. I say “Mini” because in my opinion, 13 inches is a minimal amount for how crazy those can get.

US 550 could once again have moderate impacts if this storm arrives as the GFS is predicting with lesser impacts for Wolf Creek.

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12/3/25 Wednesday 5:45 am

Sorry about that!

In my last post, I omitted the additional total for Purgatory. Subconsciously, I must have known this was the trickiest forecast because some models are showing a varying storm track. Most models show 4 to 8 additional inches by Thursday, so that is my official forecast. It will depend on when the heaviest snow falls; if it falls later than expected, the ratios could be pushed up quite a bit, resulting in 10 or more inches.

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12/3/25 Wednesday 2:30 am

❄️ Wednesday Morning Update: Upgrading Snow Totals

12/3/25 Wednesday 2:30 am

Yesterday, I wrote that cold temperatures could fuel higher liquid-to-snow ratios, which might increase totals by up to 30%. Note: It’s 13 degrees at Wolf Creek and 21 at Mountain Village in Telluride. 30% premium may be WAY too low for the overnight accumulations. I am anxious to see the totals because snowfall production in Telluride and Wolf Creek should have been perfect (maximum snowfall from minimal moisture).

⚠️ Winter Weather Advisory Concerns

• A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Pagosa for up to 5 inches of snow. I believe this is likely too low and may be upgraded.

• Wolf Creek has an Advisory as well for 4 to 12 additional inches of snow. I believe this range will be exceeded, especially on the high end.

• A feature moving in SW flow will enhance the snowfall across the southern counties, especially Archuleta County, making travel very difficult over Wolf Creek Pass.

• For what it’s worth, I would say that Pueblo needs to upgrade that Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning.

Today through Thursday, snow is forecast to continue and intensify across the southern counties. The heaviest snow will likely fall in Archuleta County as well as Wolf Creek.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Pagosa for up to 5 inches of snow. I believe this advisory is likely too low and may be upgraded.

Wolf Creek has an Advisory as well for 4 to 12 additional inches of snow—(I can’t believe Pueblo NWS gets away with that).

Here is what should happen going forward: Snow should start winding down today for Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain etc.

A feature will be moving in SW flow, which should enhance the snowfall across the southern counties, but especially in Archuleta County and make travel very difficult over Wolf Creek Pass. For what it’s worth, I would say that Pueblo needs to upgrade that Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning.

Revised Forecast for Additional Snow (5 am Today through Thursday)

Snow should start winding down today for Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain, etc. The heaviest snow will likely fall in Archuleta County as well as Wolf Creek. Again, I am using blended model data for these forecasts.

Elevation/Location	Additional Snow Forecast
Mancos, Durango	1 to 3 inches
Bayfield	2 to 4 inches
Mid-Elevations (Below 7,800 ft, incl. DVE)	2 to 4 inches
Mid-Elevations (Above 7,800 ft)	3 to 6 inches
Pagosa	5 to 8 inches
Ouray, Telluride, Red Mountain	3 to 5 inches
Wolf Creek	10 to 14 inches additional

In hindsight, I should have stuck with my gut with the higher totals to begin with. I could have provided a more area-specific forecast like I usually do with winter storms, but I don’t have time to do that this morning-next time…

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12/2/2025 Tuesday 1:30 pm

❄️ Mountain Snow is Underway: Heavier Snow Expected Wednesday

Light to moderate snow is already beginning in our higher mountain locations. Models continue to focus the heavier snow on Wednesday, and I currently believe that official model precipitation forecasts might be underestimating the total accumulation.

Storm Timing Breakdown

The snow event is expected to follow this schedule:

• Tonight (Tuesday): Light snow will fall on and off throughout the night.

• Wednesday: Snow will intensify around late morning and continue throughout the afternoon and evening. This will be the main event.

• Thursday: Snow should taper off and end.

Total Snow Forecast by Thursday (Model Data)

We are seeing surprisingly low totals from the models, but here is what the data currently projects for total accumulation through Thursday:

Elevation/Location	Snow Totals Forecast
Lower Elevations	Up to 1 inch
Mid-Elevations (Below 8,000 ft)	1 to 3 inches
Mid-Elevations (Up to 8,500 ft)	2 to 5 inches
Purgatory	3 to 6 inches
Telluride	4 to 8 inches
Wolf Creek Pass	6 to 10 inches

⚠️ Potential for Higher Totals

Keep in mind that these totals could increase. Depending on when the heaviest snow falls, cold temperatures could fuel higher liquid-to-snow ratios. In a perfect scenario, this effect could increase the snow totals by up to 30% above the current projected amounts.

As I mentioned this morning, multi day events like this create complications and I will definitely be referencing the LOTW model in the morning (Look Out The Window)!

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