12/3/25 Wednesday 2:30 am

❄️ Wednesday Morning Update: Upgrading Snow Totals

12/3/25 Wednesday 2:30 am

Yesterday, I wrote that cold temperatures could fuel higher liquid-to-snow ratios, which might increase totals by up to 30%. Note: It’s 13 degrees at Wolf Creek and 21 at Mountain Village in Telluride. 30% premium may be WAY too low for the overnight accumulations. I am anxious to see the totals because snowfall production in Telluride and Wolf Creek should have been perfect (maximum snowfall from minimal moisture).

⚠️ Winter Weather Advisory Concerns

• A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Pagosa for up to 5 inches of snow. I believe this is likely too low and may be upgraded.

• Wolf Creek has an Advisory as well for 4 to 12 additional inches of snow. I believe this range will be exceeded, especially on the high end.

• A feature moving in SW flow will enhance the snowfall across the southern counties, especially Archuleta County, making travel very difficult over Wolf Creek Pass.

• For what it’s worth, I would say that Pueblo needs to upgrade that Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning.

Today through Thursday, snow is forecast to continue and intensify across the southern counties. The heaviest snow will likely fall in Archuleta County as well as Wolf Creek.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Pagosa for up to 5 inches of snow. I believe this advisory is likely too low and may be upgraded.

Wolf Creek has an Advisory as well for 4 to 12 additional inches of snow—(I can’t believe Pueblo NWS gets away with that).

Here is what should happen going forward: Snow should start winding down today for Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain etc.

A feature will be moving in SW flow, which should enhance the snowfall across the southern counties, but especially in Archuleta County and make travel very difficult over Wolf Creek Pass. For what it’s worth, I would say that Pueblo needs to upgrade that Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning.

Revised Forecast for Additional Snow (5 am Today through Thursday)

Snow should start winding down today for Telluride, Ouray, Red Mountain, etc. The heaviest snow will likely fall in Archuleta County as well as Wolf Creek. Again, I am using blended model data for these forecasts.

Elevation/Location	Additional Snow Forecast
Mancos, Durango	1 to 3 inches
Bayfield	2 to 4 inches
Mid-Elevations (Below 7,800 ft, incl. DVE)	2 to 4 inches
Mid-Elevations (Above 7,800 ft)	3 to 6 inches
Pagosa	5 to 8 inches
Ouray, Telluride, Red Mountain	3 to 5 inches
Wolf Creek	10 to 14 inches additional

In hindsight, I should have stuck with my gut with the higher totals to begin with. I could have provided a more area-specific forecast like I usually do with winter storms, but I don’t have time to do that this morning-next time…

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12/2/2025 Tuesday 1:30 pm

❄️ Mountain Snow is Underway: Heavier Snow Expected Wednesday

Light to moderate snow is already beginning in our higher mountain locations. Models continue to focus the heavier snow on Wednesday, and I currently believe that official model precipitation forecasts might be underestimating the total accumulation.

Storm Timing Breakdown

The snow event is expected to follow this schedule:

• Tonight (Tuesday): Light snow will fall on and off throughout the night.

• Wednesday: Snow will intensify around late morning and continue throughout the afternoon and evening. This will be the main event.

• Thursday: Snow should taper off and end.

Total Snow Forecast by Thursday (Model Data)

We are seeing surprisingly low totals from the models, but here is what the data currently projects for total accumulation through Thursday:

Elevation/Location	Snow Totals Forecast
Lower Elevations	Up to 1 inch
Mid-Elevations (Below 8,000 ft)	1 to 3 inches
Mid-Elevations (Up to 8,500 ft)	2 to 5 inches
Purgatory	3 to 6 inches
Telluride	4 to 8 inches
Wolf Creek Pass	6 to 10 inches

⚠️ Potential for Higher Totals

Keep in mind that these totals could increase. Depending on when the heaviest snow falls, cold temperatures could fuel higher liquid-to-snow ratios. In a perfect scenario, this effect could increase the snow totals by up to 30% above the current projected amounts.

As I mentioned this morning, multi day events like this create complications and I will definitely be referencing the LOTW model in the morning (Look Out The Window)!

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12/2/25 Tuesday 2:30 am

❄️ That was a nice little storm for the mountains! For most residents at lower and mid-elevations, the WTI factor (was that it?) became the main story.

Surprisingly, I received only one report, which came from Mancos. Sometimes conditions align perfectly, and they received 3.50 inches of snow. By the time the storm moved over the hill, my neighborhood only saw about an inch—just enough to cover the ice on the driveway. This made for a treacherous journey with the trash can; I almost fell twice.

Winter conditions will continue this week. We’re not expecting one single large storm; instead, models show snow will keep falling—sometimes light, sometimes heavier—starting later today, tonight, tomorrow, and Thursday. These sneaky situations have a way of adding up to some decent totals, especially for Wolf Creek.

This continuous pattern always presents a forecasting challenge. Models often get the overall multi-day total (Tuesday through Thursday) close to correct, but can be wrong regarding the specific snowfall amount for each 24-hour period.

In my afternoon update, I will try to focus on timing and multi-day totals.

Here are the European model’s maps in motion to give you an idea of what I am talking about. You will notice a slight uptick in the snow on Wednesday. I want to see another model run or two before I figure out how to highlight that period.

🗓️ Looking Ahead:

The forecast suggests next week will be cool and dry for now, while the outlook for this weekend is still uncertain. Looking further out, some models are pointing toward a bigger storm around the 15th. It’s too early to make plans based on this, but being in the holiday season, it’s something to keep an eye on.

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11/30/25 Sunday 4 am

The weather models remain consistent, so the forecast for precipitation amounts and timing has not changed since the last update.

🌨️ Expected Snowfall Totals (Mountains)

The highest snowfall totals are expected across the highest mountain passes:

• Wolf Creek and Red Mountain Pass: Expect 8 to 12 inches of new snow.

• Telluride: Expected totals are 5 to 9 inches.

• Purgatory: Expected totals are  2 to 5 inches.

• Mid-Elevation areas (7,200-8,500 feet) likely 1 to 4 inches depending on location, elevation and storm behavior.

Lower-elevation areas will benefit from liquid precipitation of 0.15 to 0.40 inches. This is beneficial moisture for the region. Snow likely will fall, but at this point, the snow to liquid ratios will below andwill start off and end up melting, so I can’t deliver a decent snowfall forecast in the lower elevations.

⏱️ Timing

The precipitation is expected to move from north to south.

• A few flurries are possible at elevations above 10,000 feet before noon.

• The heavier precipitation is not expected to arrive until after 12 PM, most likely closer to 2 PM.

Travelers Note: Less adventurous travellers may want to be off the mountain passes by 2 PM to avoid the heavier snowfall conditions.

🌡️ Temperature Change

As the storm departs, a significant drop in temperature is expected. The area will transition from above-normal to below-average temperatures. Please be prepared for noticeably colder air and dress appropriately for the week ahead.

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11/29/25 Saturday 3 am

A “Mostly Mountains” storm is still on track and will be moving into the region on Sunday.

The NWS is currently forecasting this as a 4 to 8-inch event. However, I anticipate higher amounts than the NWS prediction for Telluride, Red Mountain Pass, Lizard Head Pass, and Wolf Creek Pass.

As a note, some models are leaning toward a minor ‘Gorge Event’ from Ouray to Red Mountain. This is more of a technicality than anything, and it will not change my forecast, which I will be releasing this afternoon.

The models are still struggling a bit to lock in the exact start time for the snow, but great news for travelers: it appears there will be a good travel window tomorrow morning!

I’ll be updating this later today and very early Sunday morning, but tentatively, those who want to avoid the worst conditions should aim to complete your pass travel by 2 PM.

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Confidence is increasing for the Sunday storm, though I am holding off on a forecast until Saturday afternoon.

Key Snowfall Guidance

• Mountain Locations: Current guidance suggests 4 to 12 inches of snow. This is not a forecast and will be updated tomorrow.

Pass Impacts

• General: All nearby mountain passes are expected to have at least minor impacts.

• Higher Impacts: Impacts may be more pronounced for Lizard Head and Red Mountain passes

• Wolf Creek Pass: The European and Canadian models are showing higher accumulations there. I am not ready to sign off on this yet. I want to see better buy-in from the other models.

Even the most aggressive guidance shows under a foot of snow (less than 12 inches), which is still generally very traversible for experienced locals.

Hopefully, I will get better data from the upcoming morning model runs. Happy shopping!

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Yikes! I missed one very crucial word. Sorry family!! Here is what I meant to say:

Meanwhile, have a great day!  For me, it will be full of gratitude. I am thankful for the family I have left and the friends I hold dear. I am thankful for each and every holiday I get to spend with my wife. And of course, I am thankful for all of you, your positivity, constant kind words, and support! It’s what keeps the Durango Weather Guy going.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I

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11/28/25 Thursday 3 am

Happy Thanksgiving!

Took a little break to check on these weather models. Lots of disarray in the US models. The European model is coming together with a Sunday scenario that would deliver 4-8 inches of snow across the NW San Juans, less around Purgatory, a WTI for the lower elevations and impactful snow for Wolf Creek (up to a foot).

This is a complicated solution that involves a storm dropping south in NW flow, resulting in more snow for Telluride. Then the storm drops south across the forecast area, bringing the WTI (Was That It?) effect. The low ends up south of the forecast area, then quickly ejects to the northeast, bringing Wolf Creek into play.

This situation is evolving and may or may not be a final solution. Confidence is low on the forecasted amounts.

Meanwhile, have a great day!  For me, it will be full of gratitude. I am thankful for the family I have left and the friends I hold dear. I am thankful for each and every holiday I get to spend with my wife. And of course, I am thankful for all of you, your positivity, constant kind words, and support! It’s what keeps the Durango Weather Guy going.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

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11/26/25 Wednesday 3 am

The next chance of very light snow will be Friday night, as a weak (clipper-style) storm passes to our north. At the moment, I expect nothing across the lower elevations, with maybe an inch or two for Telluride and Red Mountain. If that changes, I will let everyone know.

Sunday is still to be determined. At the moment, I would say there is a 60% of light snow and a 40% chance of getting an impactful storm; the odds of a complete miss are very low. Keep in mind that if or when the GFS and/or Canadian model embrace this storm the way the European model has, those odds will immediately flip, so stay tuned, it could happen quickly.

It is usually around “T minus” 48-72 hours that we reach consensus during complex model reads. That means sometime between tomorrow morning and Friday morning, I should have a better handle on this storm’s potential. Why am I holding on to one model run over all of the others? Because the European model usually sets the trend first, and the others have to catch up.

You people are so great. To those who have offered to bring Thanksgiving Dinner over, thank you very much. Those who know me know that I love to cook, and I started preparing a few days ago. I have reduced the number of side dishes, and I am timing “Dinner” to accommodate better Susan’s condition, which means we will be eating around 11 am. Afternoons are too much of a coin flip these days. This will be a test run for Christmas and Easter.

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11/25/25 11:30 am

On Again!

European-Sunday 5 am through Tuesday 5 am

Off Again…

GFS-Just light snow

The European model usually starts the trend. It will be interesting to see whether the GFS and Canadian models follow over the next 24 hours.

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