7/21/25 Monday 6 am

I took the trash out this morning and was surprised how juicy it was out there. It kinda felt like Florida in January. Monsoonish?

I could argue that this is monsoonal flow from the high pressure to our east. The clouds, humidity, and light rain this morning are remnants of a large thunderstorm complex that formed in Mexico yesterday and drifted northward in a southwest flow.

These storms are common during the monsoon season in Mexico and are known as Mesoscale Convective Complexes. Like most weather in the summer, models struggle with how to handle them.

It looks like a mixed bag this week, with afternoon high elevation showers likely every day. The best chance for widespread moisture will be today and Wednesday.

Here is the model’s shower coverage for this afternoon.

We’ll see.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather

7/19/25 Saturday 1:30 pm

I finally got some sleep; I actually slept in until 7 am! When I saw the model runs this morning, there was no sign of rain, so I didn’t post.

Check out this model run, which shows the shower coverage for today.

Probably the worst model run I have ever seen, given the current radar.

That thunderstorm is less than a mile from my house. Moderate rain has been falling at my home, and the temperature has dropped to 63 degrees. Of course, I have meat on the smoker; it was supposed to be the perfect day for it!

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather

Friday 5:30 pm

Been awake since 12:30 am, rough week.

Receiving numerous emails regarding the Monsoon. Is it the worst fake Monsoon? Unlikely, does it seem like it to me? 100%. The truth is, we live in an area that is highly susceptible to anomalies.

That is the Western High Desert. We don’t have a normal average. When totals can change 400% year to year, that is not an average. It is not a funky thing; it is just where we live.

We receive relatively little precipitation compared to the rest of the country in the summer. When we do, we love it, and sometimes it is extreme, which is cool. I’m pretty sure I’ll receive a negative email for saying it’s cool.

Thanks

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather

Friday 5 am

I just took a look at the Euro refresh. It looks a little different than the late-night run.

I just realized I never posted the map from earlier.

Old run

As you can see, there isn’t much to discuss. However, take a look at the latest run below.

This run shows the potential for heavy showers across the northern half of the forecast area. It also indicates scattered showers developing in some mid- and lower-elevation areas.

Which one is right? I wish I knew, but I would prepare for both scenarios.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question

7/18/25 Friday 1 am

The overnight Euro is out, and there are no surprises for today. As I saw yesterday, the model indicates isolated showers across the northern portions of the forecast area, favoring higher elevations.

However, this model run decreases the chances for showers for Saturday, perhaps favoring Archuleta County for a better chance of showers.

I’ll check back in later if this changes.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question

7/17/25 6:00 am

All week, Thursday has looked like it would be the best chance for more widespread showers this week. While that still appears to be the case, missing is the large plume of moisture that has shown up on the models 4 of the last 5 days.

Here is the shower coverage map from 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. today.

Currently, Friday appears spotty, with most activity concentrated in the higher elevations. The latest model runs are now showing a chance of more widespread showers on Saturday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question

Wednesday 4:00 am

No changes in the modeling. Today, it still appears that there will be better coverage than in the last couple of days. My email inbox blew up with reports from areas in the east-central forecast area, especially around Bayfield. The highest report I received was 0.68 inches. Hopefully, more areas will get some rain love today. Tomorrow still looks wetter–fingers crossed.

 

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question

About 3 pm

It was a challenging day (bro), but I saw no difference in the models for tomorrow. Better chance of rain. Thursday looks wetter, but model updates are varying.

Might get that TMI update before Friday.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question

Tuesday, July 15, 2025  (2025 is 53.5% over)

I finally got a couple of reports of rain yesterday. Today should be similar to yesterday, I call them “dart-throw showers”.  Of course, this analogy only works if you suck at darts, but you get the idea-very unpredictable with a forecast like this:

Based on this, the models have the highest chances in the La Platas, Wolf Creek area, SW San Juans, and Northern San Juans. Once again, it also shows a slight chance of showers south of 160. I saw the same thing yesterday, and I had a couple of reports of a quick 0.10 to 0.25 inches. So I can’t rule it out.

The latest model runs indicate better rain chances tomorrow, followed by a slow start on Thursday, with the infamous moisture plume arriving later in the day, bringing measurable precipitation in the evening and night. This may change; if I am able, I will try to post after the morning model runs around lunchtime.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question

7/14/25 Monday 6:30 am

Really? So 6 weeks at most away from high elevation snow!

Showers are still in the forecast for the week. The update is that Thursday and Friday do not look as widespread; however, Saturday and Sunday do look wet. We will see how that pans out. It is trending with the earlier model runs; it just delays the onset by 24+ hours.

Yesterday, the rain waited at my house until I put dinner on the grill.

Here is the potential shower coverage this afternoon.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR

Click here to DONATE

Cash App users:  $JGDWG

Click here to submit a weather report, comment or question