12/9/24 Monday, 4:30 am

There have been no changes since my last post. The minimalist storm will leave 1 to 3 inches of snow, mostly north of Silverton, with less further south and none in most areas.

So far, people seem to remember what I have been saying for months (I gather this from the lack of emails asking where the snow is). True winter will arrive late.

This isn’t a guess; as I explained in September and October, La Nina should be close to its peak. The dry, warmer weather we have been experiencing is indicative of a La Nina pattern.

I do not expect this to last. We should transition from a weak, moderate La Nina to a weak La Nina and then a neutral ENSO. We saw glimpses of this with a couple of fall storms in October and November as La Nina was strengthening. As it begins weakening, we will see those conditions return, and with seasonally colder temperatures in place, it will result in snow.

Don’t worry—we could enter this pattern right around the last week of the month or the beginning of the new year!

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12/5/24 Thursday 4 am

A couple of days ago, I said that I was not a big fan of the track for the Monday storm.

The European and Canadian models never bought into the scenario the GFS portrayed. The GFS never showed a big impact storm, but it would have brought a nice change to this long-expected boring pattern.

For the lower and mid-elevation areas, I expect more wind and cold than snow. For the higher elevations and ski areas, one to four inches of snow may fall with this weak “clipper”-style storm.

So when do you think I will say our next impactful storm will hit? Hint: think back to Thanksgiving week. When is our next holiday week when we see a lot of travelers?

The GFS and, to a lesser extent, the European model show a pattern change around December 18th. We will see!

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12/3/24 Tuesday 4:45 am

I last posted on Thanksgiving. I mentioned that the GFS model was trying to sniff out a storm between the 8th and 12th.

As that date comes into better focus, so does the storm. At the moment, models favor a Monday morning arrival, departing the area late Tuesday

At first glance, I am not a big fan of the storm track. That being said, there is plenty of time for that to change. The European and Canadian models have been the followers, and the GFS model has been leading the way in figuring out this storm.

The European shows a shallow NNW flow storm passing slightly to our north with minimal impacts. The GFS, however, is starting to dig the system deeper south as it approaches Utah. We want this storm to track just slightly south of us for maximum impact.

The different storm tracks yield different results in the models.

The models have been showing this storm cold enough for all snow in all areas. Despite that, I like to show the liquid-equivalent precipitation forecasts.

Here is the European, showing NNW flow with the storm tracking slightly north.

Here is the GFS model showing a track slightly south of the European. It is still too far north to be a major storm for us, that could change. The GFS shows a WNW flow into the area.

Although not a major storm, if this track is verified, it would yield entry-level Winter Weather Advisories across the forecast area.

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11/28/24 Thursday 4:00 am

No travel issues today.

It was not a bad storm for Thanksgiving. It was a little warmer than expected, so the snow totals were lower than expected. It was a soaker, for sure.

The models quickly moved the storm out of most areas, but it was still snowing yesterday afternoon at Wolf Creek. They got a little closer to the expected totals with close to two feet.

With this event over, there will be nothing to talk about until the models sniff out the next storm. The GFS has its sights on December 8th and 12th. The European model shows nothing for at least two weeks.

If you are new to the site, I have been telling followers that I do not expect winter to take hold until around or just after Christmas. LA Nina should have already peaked. It will be heading back to neutral ENSO conditions, and then the fun will begin!

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11/26/24  Tuesday 3 pm

As of 1 pm Wolf Creek was by far the leader with 9 inches of accumulation, heavy snow was falling with 21 degrees.

Tomorrow afternoon, I will take another look at Thursday’s travel conditions.

 

― Winter Maintenance Alert ―

US 50 Monarch Pass scheduled to close at 5 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 26

CDOT maintenance teams perform safety-critical operations for approximately two hours

Southwest Colorado — The Colorado Department of Transportation will perform winter maintenance operations on US Highway 50 between Gunnison and Salida, on Tuesday, Nov. 26. Operations will require a full closure between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m.

Closure times are not exact and may be extended depending on successful maintenance operations and weather conditions. Motorists should plan ahead, allow for extra travel time, or arrive and drive through the closure points before the designated closure times.

Traffic Impacts

Winter maintenance operations scheduled for Tuesday, November 26 between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m.

• Eastbound travelers will encounter a closure near Sargents (Mile Point 190)
• Westbound travelers will encounter a closure at Maysville (Mile Point 210)

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11/25/24 Monday 4 pm

I have gained many new email subscribers in the last couple of months. I want you to know that I am usually more detailed when it comes to winter forecasts. Winter, for weather enthusiasts (me), meteorologists, and atmospheric scientists, technically starts on December 1st. We don’t use Fugazi (for my East Coast friends) solstice references.

So, don’t be deterred when I don’t try to forecast borderline snow/rain accumulations for areas below 8,500 feet before Thanksgiving. I am grateful we are having storms before Thanksgiving. We will get there. It is going to be a good winter. Don’t believe the typical La Nina rhetoric. This one is weak, short, and different.

I have given away most of my thoughts leading up to this post so there should be no surprises.

I hope the models are correct. They show this storm moving out late on Wednesday, giving plenty of time for clean-up before short-distance travelers see their loved ones on Thursday. I am still concerned about Thursday’s pass travel. Hopefully, I am wrong.

We will see, and I will be posting more often. As some of my X followers know, I am an active market trader, and this week is not the best week for it. I am in the process of remodeling DWG HQ (DurangoWeather Guy Headquarters, aka my home office). Before Christmas, I will start posting videos before my storm posts. It should be fun. I had planned to do storm videos, but my wife’s condition has worsened, and it is no longer possible.

I have even ordered merchandise and ball caps for donations.

Enough of all that.

Here are some highlights from the NWS forecast discussion and the latest Warnings.

National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Atmospheric River event impacts the area tonight through
  late Wednesday bringing a prolonged period of moderate to
  heavy snowfall to the mountains of eastern Utah and western
  Colorado.

- If you plan to travel over the mountains tomorrow and
  Wednesday, be aware that very difficult, if not impossible,
  driving conditions will be possible.

- If possible, plan alternative routes ahead of time, or delay
  travel if possible until Thanksgiving Day. Stay up-to-date
  with the latest forecast as this potentially significant storm
  draws nearer.

 

That “until Thanksgiving day” still worries me. We will see; it is what the models–except that midnight Wednesday deal…Do they know?

WSW–Perfect from Grand Junction

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1245 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

COZ018-019-261200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0011.241126T0700Z-241128T0700Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Hesperus
1245 PM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12
  and 24 inches with locally higher amounts up to 36 inches
  possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight MST Wednesday Night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening
  commutes.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
AVALANCHE WATCH
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
500 PM MST MON NOV 25 2024

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

...AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY 5 PM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY 5 PM...

*WHAT...Heavy snow and strong winds will result in very
dangerous avalanche conditions and HIGH (Level 4 of 5)
avalanche danger by late Tuesday afternoon.

*WHERE...Park Range, Flat Tops, Gore Range, Indian Peaks,
Sawatch Range, Elk Mountains, western San Juan Mountains,
southern San Juan Mountains

*WHEN...Avalanche danger increases rapidly on Tuesday afternoon.
Very dangerous avalanche conditions Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

*IMPACTS...Large and dangerous avalanches will be very easy
to trigger in many places. Avalanches will run naturally.

Pueblo NWS says up to 40 for Wolf Creek. 10 to 40, though? Stupid…

Here is what I am thinking:

Telluride: 12 to 18 inches

Purgatory 18 to 26 inches

Wolf Creek 24-32 inches (probably low)

Mid-elevations areas like north Vallecito, upper Durango Hills, and Upper Forest Lakes could see 5 to 10 inches before melting.

Most of us below 8,200 feet will likely see a sloppy mess.

The next update is tomorrow morning.

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11/25/24 Monday 4 am

As promised from the NWS: One to three feet, travel difficult to impossible…

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
152 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

COZ018-019-252200-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0012.241126T0100Z-241128T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0011.241126T0700Z-241128T0700Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Silverton,
Rico, and Mayday
152 AM MST Mon Nov 25 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
MST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12
  and 24 inches with locally higher amounts up to 36 inches
  possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight MST Wednesday Night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening
  commutes

 

Midnight Wednesday? That is too early. I expect that to get extended until Wednesday after 5 a.m. or even noon.

Remember what I said about leftovers–regardless of the storm’s position, sometimes it just snows…

Here are a couple of precipitation maps.

GFS

Canadian: Remember, I usually blend some of these higher totals from this model into my snow forecast totals.

This storm should put Wolf Creek close to or slightly over 100 inches for the season. I will put together a forecast that should be out before 5 pm.

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11/24/24 Sunday 4:30 am

Although the jet will make an appearance slightly to our north, providing five to ten inches of snow today and tonight in the northern and central mountains, our area will be largely ignored (maybe a few flurries up high) until THE system arrives late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

One thing I like to look at for monsoonal flow in the summer and AR remnants in the Winter is PWAT values. PWAT refers to the Precipitable Water Value. It is a tool used to determine how much precipitation will fall.

It is usually forecasted as a percentage of normal. I cannot remember seeing values this high in November.

These are the forecasted percentage of normal values for Tuesday afternoon.

Again, I have not seen values this high in November, and while we have likely seen values this high during the winter, I cannot remember 300-400% of normal. I am not saying it did not happen; I just don’t remember it.

The models have agreed on timing: The storm will move in early Tuesday morning and depart most of the area by early Thursday.

Most people would say, “Well, that’s good. We don’t have to go anywhere until Thursday.” I hope that will be the case for travelers, but I would not bet on it. When you have a prolonged period of 300-400% of average moisture, there is a very good chance that leftovers will cause a big problem for those attempting to travel over the passes even on Thursday.

With it being a holiday, expect powerful wording coming from the NWS and CDOT regarding travel. The numerous Winter Storm Warnings will likely say, “Travel will be impossible.” We may even see an “If you attempt to travel, you will put your life at risk.”

These are not my words; I am just saying not to be surprised to see something like that come out by Monday afternoon.

As far as the models go, here are the two model runs I am currently favoring.

The Canadian model for its higher terrain totals.

And NOAA’s WPC model for bucking the trend and dispersing the precipitation across the lower elevations.

I think most of the precipitation below 8,000 feet will be rain and very wet snow, which is too sloppy to measure.

For the ski areas, I am currently expecting one to three feet of snow, maybe more in some areas.

I still have about 36 hours before my actual forecast, which will be out after 4 p.m. on Monday.

I don’t have great advice for travelers. Today is fine, Monday will be fine, and Tuesday morning will likely be okay. However, from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning (at least), it looks like it will be very difficult to make it over the passes. By definition, travel becomes impossible when the road is closed. I hope this is not a surprise to anyone.

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11/22/24 Friday  4:30 am (I slept in)

Abrupt changes occurred in the forecast models over the last 24 hours. Typically, big changes are not a positive development when forecasting a storm. More uncertainty? Nope. That’s the thing: All models agree on the new timing.

So much so that I can turn to the high-resolution NBM model for guidance. What I see is warmer and windy for Saturday. Moisture transport increases beginning Saturday night into Sunday. There is a chance of snow showers in the higher elevations late Sunday. Then, a ridge builds in briefly on Monday (grocers get ready for a big shopping day on Monday). Monday night, the storm moves in. The storm could be very impactful in the mountains.

Remember a few weeks ago, long before this storm was on any of the models’ radars—god knows it’s not on our radar. Anyway, I said that I expected a worst-case scenario around Thanksgiving. I opined that after a quiet period, the storm train would return around Thanksgiving week.

The current models agree that travel will be impacted on Tuesday and mostly Wednesday. One to two feet of snow is forecasted for most mountain locations—two to three feet (plus) for Wolf Creek. The Canadian model is usually very good at sniffing out high totals at Wolf Creek; I usually have to trim them back for the forecast.

The Canadian currently shows up to four feet of snow for Wolf Creek, with over five feet in uninhabited SE San Juans just to the south.

These are not my forecasts. I won’t put out a forecast until Monday afternoon, assuming the timing does not change.

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11/21/24 Thursday 2:30 am

Little has changed since yesterday. Reassessing the title of yesterday’s post, I probably should not have said “No Model Consensus.”

We have a consensus among the models. That is, a big pattern change is on the way. With it, one or more storms over the next 7 to 10 days. Cold air and moisture could combine for a significant event. Snow levels will start high, more typical of this time of year. At some point, the models show the cold air moving in and winter taking over.

All of the models show some precipitation beginning late Sunday or early Monday. Then, their solutions diverge.

The GFS shows precipitation arriving overnight into Monday morning, with the system moving out by Wednesday morning.

The Canadian model shows a light precipitation event on Sunday that leaves the area quickly on Monday. Then, the Canadian model shows a significant winter storm arriving late Wednesday or early Thursday. The storm intensifies Thursday into Friday and moves out of the area late Saturday.

In contrast, the European model shows a storm arriving late Sunday or early Monday and lasting through Wednesday morning.

It is too early for me to field travel questions or put on the tires questions. If you do, I will tell you to check back late Saturday after 4 pm.

Here are the forecasted liquid precipitation forecasts. For the ski areas, multiply what you see by 10 to get a general idea of snow accumulations. Don’t do this below 8,500 feet with this storm. Assume a mixed bag for now.

GFS

European

Canadian model

This would likely result in pass closures late Friday (at a minimum).

Stay tuned…

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