10/22/24 Tuesday 2:30 pm

Great participation in the precipitation reports. Thank you!

From now on, I would ask that you list two things in your reports. Your location and the amount. Keep that separate from your commentary. I love the comments, but they require a lot of editing. This way I can cut and paste the totals ((without your comments) and get these totals out quicker.

Speaking of comments, there was one I wanted to share with you.

“I skied up to Columbus basin to check out the 4″swe listed at the weather station on the CAIC site. I measured 21″ at 11,4000 feet. Very heavy, dense snow. I didn’t need to bring the rock skis”

CR 250 Hermosa 2.9
CR 503 near CR 502 1.8 inches
DVE 2.34” rain
1.86 Forest Lakes
Mancos Valley 3.5
Upper Durango Hills -1.97 inches
2.07 (north Durango)
1.4  Cortez
2.42 north end Vallecito
Rustic Ridge,  1.82
Lightner Creek  2.43
3.35 Aztec.
Timberline, 2.17
2.45″ Baker’s Bridg
2″ Coolwater
1.11  intersection of CR 228 and 502
SkyRidge 2.3
Hermosa Cliffs Ranch 2.73
King Mountain 3.06
Mayday 4.0
Vallecito 2.3
Bondad 1.6
Skyridge 2.16
Twin Buttes 2.13
Chama, NM 2.67
Mancos 3
NW Hermosa (Hill) 6.91
Falls Creek Ranch 2.5
Shenandoah Highlands 2.57
Rafter J  3.62
7 miles south of Bayfield 1.6
Turtle Lake 2.2
4.2 Glacier
2.13 cr 250
2 miles south of Hesperus 7800’ 5.69
Rockwood, 2.57
Lower Forest Lakes  1.41
2 miles NE Cortez above Totten Lake  2.75
1.83”@CR 105 & CR 116
Durango 3.25 inches of rain
Animas Valley Elementary School 2.5
2.5  Durango Ella Vita
CR 310 South of Airport 1.47
Dolores  1.9
1.94 inches at 1 mile west and 1 mile north of Summit Lake
Durango  1.90
2.84 Hidden Ridge Ranch
Deer Valley 1.58
CR 302 near CR 301, 1.41
1.7 between Ignacio and Oxford
Enchanted Forest- 2.2”
4 miles NNW of Bayfield 1.34
2.36  Elk Stream Ranch

The next pattern change should come in mid to late next week!

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10/21/24 Monday 4:00 am

My inbox is already starting to pile up with storm reports! I will try to get the totals out on Tuesday.

There were no complaints about this storm. DWGHQ received 3.59 inches of rain from Friday through Sunday. Additionally, 0.89 inches fell in the pre-storm moisture surge on Wednesday and Thursday.

Wolf Creek had 21 inches of snow as of 11 a.m. Sunday morning. Snow continued to fall throughout the day, and flurries are still flying up there with 21 degrees! I am pleased they can open because of this storm!

Our next pattern change back to stormy weather will be around Halloween!

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10/20/24 Sunday 4:45 am

Yesterday I talked about the closed low pressure spinning over Arizona. The day started as expected; showers developed. I expected the precipitation to continue to build in further.

The low-pressure had different ideas. It retrograded slightly back west. It started wobbling closer last night. Here it is now.

My cartographer and cartophile followers will recognize the location of this low: Flagstaff.

 

What does this mean? More rain and snow throughout the day. The NWS extended its Winter Storm Warnings by nine hours; they now expire at 9 p.m.

Here is what they say:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
425 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

COZ019-210300-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-241021T0300Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus
425 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING ABOVE 8500 FEET...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow above 8500 feet although biggest
  impacts likely to remain above 10000 feet. Additional snow
  accumulations between 4 and 10 inches with locally higher amounts
  above timberline on favored peaks. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
425 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

COZ018-210300-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-241021T0300Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, and Lake City
425 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Moderate to heavy snow at times above 9000 feet. Additional
  snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches with locally higher
  amounts up to 10 inches above 10000 feet. Winds gusting as high as
  40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult.

Interestingly enough, Pueblo NWS did not extend the expiration past noon.

So, I will continue enjoying this storm. I am already tracking our next storm. Halloween snow, anyone?

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10/19/24 Saturday 4:30 am

It’s not over yet! The closed low-pressure is spinning over Arizona early this morning.

Depending on your system, these animated images may take a minute to load.

We will start with a bit of a lull in some areas this morning. Things will fire up by the afternoon (more than likely earlier). Thunderstorms will redevelop, and snow will continue in the higher elevations, mainly above 9,500 feet.

Here are the maps in motion showing the lull, giving way to thunderstorms as the day progresses.

Here is the updated Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass. I waited until after 6 a.m., and GJT did not update theirs.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

COZ066-068-191815-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-241020T1800Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains
Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass, Cumbres Pass, and North Pass
333 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 12 to 16
  inches.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan
  Mountains above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially
  over Wolf Creek Pass.

 

So far, steady rain has fallen in the lower and middle elevations. I have seen accumulations ranging from 0.70 inches to well over 3.0 inches, and we are only halfway through this event (don’t send me any totals until Monday morning).

According to SNOTEL sites, higher elevations have banked 8 to 18 inches of snow across the area.

Purgatory is on the lower end of those totals so far, with around 7 inches at the snowstake.

If you are a new follower, I don’t comment or adjust my thoughts too much during an extended precipitation event. Models were very consistent leading up to this event. Sometimes, they are right for the wrong reason. In other words, the Friday through Monday totals may be correct, but the totals from Friday to Saturday could be wrong. I have learned not to guess anything second when the low pressure is still in Arizona.

I was recently asked what the best setup for a massive storm in our area is. This is it! This is a best-case scenario storm. If this happened in the middle of winter, it would have delivered 18 to 60 inches of snow across the lower and mid-elevation areas!

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10/18.24 Friday 5:45 am

The latest model runs continue to point to a very wet storm. Due to the time of year, verifying snow totals above 9,500 feet will be tricky.

\Here are the latest Winter Storm Warnings that officially go into effect at 6 am. Well done; I would not have changed the wording.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
423 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

COZ018-019-182200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0010.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Mayday
423 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY
ABOVE 8500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected above 8500 feet. Total
  snow accumulations between 12 and 24 inches with locally higher
  amounts around 3 feet above timberline on favored peaks.  Winds
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

COZ066-068-181700-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0016.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains
Above 10000 Feet-
Including Cumbres Pass, Wolf Creek Pass, and North Pass
256 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
NOON MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and
  2 Feet. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan
  Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially
  over Wolf Creek Pass.

 

Here are the latest models. I will only share the liquid totals for the GFS and Canadian, but the Euro is persistent with lower elevation snow totals, so I will leave that in.

GFS

Liquid equivalent

Canadian

 

Liquid equivalent

European

Liquid equivalent

European

Snow before melting

I wish I were as confident as the Euro is about the lower-elevation snow. One thing to keep in mind is that the models don’t forecast accumulated snow. They forecast snow before melting.

My biggest takeaway from the overnight models is that the European is positioning itself a little further south. If this occurs, the deepest moisture would fall from Purgatory to points south.

While we were waiting for the storm, up to an inch of rain had already fallen. Lower elevations should get a ton of additional rain. One to two inches of rain will fall in Montezuma County, and two to three inches will fall in La Plata and Archuleta Counties. I fully expect to get a few reports of five inches or more!

As far as the snow goes, as I said, it will be difficult to verify. The majority of the snow will fall above 9,600 feet. However, on Saturday morning and Sunday morning, after midnight, snow levels could lower to 8,000 feet or lower.

All said and done, 18 to 24 inches for Wolf Creek. Purgatory should get 14 to 18 inches (less at the base). Telluride will likely see 8 to 12 inches (less at the base).

This could change if the low tracks a little further north.

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10/17/24 Thursday 3:15 pm

Today, some areas have seen light sporadic precipitation being pushed in before the storm’s “outer precipitation bands” start to move in.

I will prepare a snow forecast for higher elevation areas, mainly above 8,500 feet, and include it in my morning update tomorrow.

Here are the updated  Warnings

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
218 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

COZ018-019-181045-
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0010.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Hesperus
218 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT
SUNDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected above 8500 feet. Total
  snow accumulations between 12 and 24 inches with locally higher
  amounts around 3 feet above timberline on favored peaks.  Winds
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Friday to noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
133 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

COZ066-068-180345-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0017.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0016.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains
Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass, North Pass, and Cumbres Pass
133 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and
  3 feet. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan
  Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Friday to noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially over Wolf
  Creek Pass. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday
  morning and evening commutes.

 

Here are the latest model runs; all models have boosted their liquid precipitation from the previous runs. The Euro has increased the snow totals at lower elevations.

GFS

Liquid equivalent

 

Snow before melting

 

Canadian

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

European

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

Next update early tomorrow

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10/17/24 Thursday 4 am

Do not send daily precipitation reports. This will be a long, drawn-out storm. Send your totals on Monday morning.

Yesterday was mostly as expected. Late last night, the exiting remnant low left the area, paving the way for the big storm. Showers and storms will redevelop today.  As the storm approaches, it will deepen and tap into colder air. The storm should exit the area late on Sunday (although a couple of models are 12 hours later than that).

Here is the new Winter Storm Watch. Before I showed it, I was surprised that it was released as is.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
222 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

COZ018-019-172200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0011.241018T1800Z-241020T1800Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Mayday
222 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible above 9000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations between 5 and 35 inches possible. Winds could gust
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

5 to 35? Why not 1 to 50? Come on KGJT. You can do better. This watch reads like a KPUB Watch.

Like this:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

COZ066-068-171845-
/O.EXT.KPUB.WS.A.0017.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains
Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass, North Pass, and Cumbres Pass
245 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 12
  and 40 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan
  Mountains above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening
  commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Here are the latest models

GFS-not like the others…

Liquid equivalent

GFS

Snow before melting

European

Liquid equivalent

European

Snow before melting

 

Canadian

Liquid equivalent

Canadian

Snow before melting

 

Here is a first look at one of NOAA’s high-resolution blended models. I do not have a snowfall option from this platform.

WPC

Liquid equivalent

This is one of the follower favorites because it shows distinguishable precipitation amounts.

1.1 inches in Cortez, 2.6 in Durango, 2.6 in Pagosa, 4.2 in Wolf Creek and 1.8 in Telluride. This time of year, it is challenging to calculate snowfall ratios. However, the 4.2 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek would equate to 42 inches of snow. I am not sure my forecast will be that high.

I will post again later today.

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10/16/24 2:30 pm

As promised, here is the first Winter Storm Watch of the season for the higher elevations. Expect revisions (likely upward) before it becomes a Winter Storm Warning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
145 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2024

COZ018-019-170345-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0011.241018T1800Z-241020T1800Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Mayday 
145 PM MDT Wed Oct 16 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible above 9000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 20 inches with locally higher amounts
  possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday
  evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

If you want more information on timing, and you missed my morning update, you can read it here: Wednesday Morning Update

GFS

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

Canadian

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

European

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

I am anxious to see the new model runs tomorrow!

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10/16/24 Wednesday 5 am

I accidentally sent a template as a post yesterday; sorry for the confusion.

I have not had a chance to answer all of your emails yet. Thanks for your patience. I will not have any good advice for anyone attempting to travel over the mountain passes on Friday, Saturday, or early Sunday.

The models outdid themselves last night. The Canadian came to life–wow! There will be a better chance of showers developing later today as a remnant low pressure (not directly related to our upcoming storm).

This will prime the pump as SW flow continues tonight into Thursday. It will be difficult to tell when the old low fizzles out and the new low pumps fresh moisture in. As is usually the case, I will not separate the batches of moisture; I will treat the whole thing as one event.

So, there will be rain/snow showers later today, increasing on Thursday, becoming very heavy late Thursday early Friday through Saturday, and wrapping up some time on Sunday.

GFS

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

European

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

Up next is the Canadian model. I am assuming this is an anomalous run. It is showing the heaviest snow that I have ever seen forecasted for Purgatory, La Platas, and Coal Bank Pass. I have seen heavier snow forecasted for Wolf Creek, but it was not this early in the season.

Before we get too excited, let’s see what the next run looks like later today!

Canadian model

Liquid equivalent–Look at that 9.4 inches (liquid equivalent) over the La Platas! We will see what the next run shows…

Canadian

 

Snow before melting. The snow chart only goes up to 48 inches; this would literally be off the chart!

Again, let’s wait and see what the updated run shows.

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10/16/24 Wednesday

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