10/29/24

A couple of years ago, when the project was getting off the ground, I was included in some of the early discussions regarding the placement, etc., of the radar.

That ended with delay after delay. When the project finally got going, I was never contacted again until it was completed. People from the county reached out, but I was unable to attend any of their meetings.

Then it was done, and we waited for the app and website to go live. It did, and I have been waiting to see if this was their final effort or if they were still refining it.

I don’t know if this is just a public-access site. Perhaps the NWS and EMS have a more comprehensive site. I am sure I will get some emails after this.

So here it is…

Hmmmm…

See for yourself– La Plata County Radar –You can also download the app. Search LP wx.

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10/29/24  Tuesday 3:30 am

Moderate to heavy rainfall exceeds all expectations the models predicted for this storm. There are many upside surprises, with over an inch for many locations, including DWG HQ. Here is one geographically favored area north of Hermosa.

As for the higher elevations, they mostly look like this.

Remember, we should experience a lull later today as the main energy moves north and colder air moves in. Residual moisture will result in showery activity and the chance of light snow in the mid- and possibly lower elevations.

I am not going to update the models because they are already wrong.

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10/28/24  Monday 3 pm

So far, there have been no changes to the existing Advisories that begin at 6 pm. The NWS calls for 6 to 12 inches of snow for all higher elevations in the forecast area at or above 10,000 feet.

Late afternoon runs are starting to come in and trending up. I am more comfortable with 10-16 inches at or above 10,000 feet.

I still like the European. I liked it this morning, and I liked the latest run today.

Liquid equivalent

 

Snow before melting–BTW, that 17″ snow forecast is for Camp Bird.

The lower elevations are in store for 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain. Snow levels will drop after midnight and throughout the day tomorrow.

I am expecting a lull Tuesday evening, with moisture diminishing and another shot of cold air deepening into the forecast area. This could give lower elevations a shot of a few flakes.

This may change, but for now, I see a chance for 2 to 5 inches of snow between 7,500 and 8,500 feet, maybe a flurry or two below 7,500. I will follow up on this tomorrow morning.

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10/28/24 Monday 4:30 am

Here are the latest Advisories from the National Weather Service. These are pretty cautious, depending on what I see over the next 12 hours, I may be inclined to push them a bit.

COZ009-010-012-018-282200-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0028.241029T0000Z-241030T1800Z/
G-
Including the cities of Telluride, Skyway, Aspen, Vail, Snowmass, Crested
Butte, Taylor Park, Marble, 
220 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations
  between 5 and 11 inches with locally higher amounts over the
  higher peaks of the Elks. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains, Gore and Elk
  Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys, Grand and Battlement Mesas,
  and West Elk and Sawatch Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
  morning and evening commutes.

COZ019-282200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0028.241029T0000Z-241030T1200Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico
220 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected Above 9000 feet. Total snow
  accumulations between 6 and 12 inches, with locally higher
  amounts. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult  to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

 

COZ068-281715-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0029.241029T0300Z-241029T2100Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass and Cumbres Pass
307 AM MDT Mon Oct 28 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 3 PM MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and
  14 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet County.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially
  over Wolf Creek Pass. Strong winds could cause damage to trees and
  power lines, and could lead to dangerous travel conditions with
  near zero visibilities.

 

Several encouraging signs appeared in the suite of overnight model runs. The mild Autumn conditions we have been experiencing since the last blast will end abruptly.

There are several signs that the lower elevations may see their first flakes. Temps will plummet into the low 20s in the lower elevation after the storm leaves the area!

The GFS is struggling again, with low-elevation precipitation totals yielding an unrealistic precipitation spread across the forecast area.

I like what I saw on the European this morning; this is a realistic forecast.

Liquid equivalent

 

Snow before melting

 

More posts throughout the day, stay tuned!

 

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10/27/24  Football Day 1:00 pm

Everything looks to be lining up for beneficial rain in the lower elevations and great early-season snow in the higher elevations and ski areas!

The timing has not changed. Things should really get going tomorrow night and move out of our area by Thursday.

Here are the latest models

GFS

Liquid equivalent

GFS

Snow before melting

European

Liquid equivalent

European—This model shows colder air working in before the moisture leaves the area. This could result in a little bit of low and mid-elevation snow.

Snow before melting

Here is NOAA’s high-resolution WPC model. This model does not have an output for snow accumulation.

Two updates tomorrow, one early and one late!

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10/27 Sunday 6 am

*Crisis averted; I no longer need tech assistance. Thanks to all who reached out.

As I started to discuss what to expect this winter, this post involved a more detailed discussion than expected.  It is a lot of content, so I will post a separate model update later today.

Finally. the models have come together! They paint a scenario that results in 6 to 20+ inches of snow across the higher elevations and local ski areas. For the lower elevations, most precipitation will fall as rain, with 1/2 of an inch to 2+ inches of rain across the forecast area. We may see some snow below 8,000 feet as the storm moves out.

Precipitation could start as soon as Monday afternoon, but it should ramp up after midnight early Tuesday morning. The storm should be out of the area by Thursday.

After that, it appears another storm will arrive on its heels, likely on Sunday—a week from today—bringing deeper moisture and lower snow levels!

This is exciting. People have asked me about winter, and I have stated that it is not going to be a typical La Nina winter for our area. I also believe we will have an above-average, or well-above-average, snowfall in some cases.

Since we are on that topic, I feel the need to elaborate since I have been making this claim for a while.

La Nina and El Nino are classifications in ENSO discussions (El Nino Southern Oscillation). La Nina is not declared as soon as the  (west Pacific equatorial) ocean cooling hits -0.5c; that is when the countdown begins. If it continues at this temperature or cooler for several months, then it can be declared a La Nina. Conversely, El Nino countdown begins at +0.5

That does not mean we won’t experience the effects before it is declared!  Our wettest periods and heaviest winter snow historically falls when we are in the neutral zone. This ranges from+0.5c degrees to -0.5c degrees. This is where we currently are: a neutral to weak La Nina.

This is where I expect us to be throughout the winter. There is a good chance that we could see a brief lull in the storm track over the next six weeks as La Nina temporarily cools more than -.0.5c. By early January, maybe late December, I expect to be back in a weak La Nina to neutral state.

What does that look like? Remember the famous dying La Nina event during the 2022-2023 winter? Wolf Creek stopped counting at 484″ for the season when they closed. Purgatory stopped counting at 372 inches.  It led to one of the wettest springs/summers we have ever had!

I can’t say it will be exactly the same, but I see a very similar setup this year!

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10/26/24 Saturday 6 am

Happy Saturday!

Before I get started, I need a recommendation for tech support for my computer system, someone who does it for a living that I would pay. It is a hardware issue with Windows, not to help me with the website.

Unfortunately, the three models we usually follow in the days before a storm arrives still favor the forecast area’s eastern portions. I have nothing against that; if they only favored the forecast area’s western portions, I would be equally concerned.

This is because the high-resolution models disagree with this conclusion.

Here is NOAA’s WPC model. I am posting two versions of the same model and model run but from different data providers.

WB WPC

Liquid equivalent

WM WPC

Tomorrow, I will do a more detailed update, regardless of what I see in the models (provided I don’t crash my system trying to fix it”!

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10/25/24 Friday 3:00 pm

I’m sorry for the update being later in the day. I was waiting for more consistency in the model runs today, and it did not happen.

We are still 72 hours out, and the models are still trying to get a handle on the next storm. The biggest inconsistencies occur with how the models are spreading the precipitation across the forecast area.

Here is the storm; it will be more impressive for the Pac NW than for us (as far as I know).

I am only highlighting NOAA blended models today. As I said earlier, the models are still trying to figure this out.

These models try to highlight the precipitation spreads, smooth them out, and reproduce the combination at a high resolution. They are boring several days out, but they are very helpful the day before when I am preparing a snow forecast.

NBM

Liquid equivalent

WPC

Liquid equivalent

 

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10/24/24 Thursday 4:30 am

Yep, I went there. How about that? I have limited time this morning, so here are the latest model runs. All of the models have sped up the storm’s arrival. The first impacts may be felt by late Monday. The storm should move out of the area by Thursday.

European

Liquid equivalent

 

Snow before melting

GFS

Liquid equivalent

Snow before melting

Canadian

Liquid equivalent

Canadian

Snow before melting

Stay tuned! My next update will be on Friday, with a more detailed analysis on Saturday morning!

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10/23/24 Wednesday 4:30 am

It is a little early to plan on what if any, effects there will be with next week’s potential storm.

The models are still all over the place on what to expect. Nut, it is never too early to start watching. Here is an interesting run from the overnight GFS.

This is late Monday through Wednesday morning. Again, don’t sweat the timing. While I believe something is coming, it could be 24 or 48 hours later than this.

Here is the liquid precipitation from the GFS

Last weekend’s storm favored the western half of the forecast area. Will this one favor the eastern?

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