Tag: European model

Thursday Early Evening

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 5:30 pm

River Forecast Center just time-stamped their earlier update. That means they released the same data as the previous post and labeled it the most recent. This makes me think we may not get an update until morning.  This also makes me think old precip data is still being fed in.

If you’re new, I tend to overprotect SW Colorado to the extent that it sounds like I am digging at NWS. That’s not the case, but if I strongly disagree, I will let everyone know, as I have.

The flood warning text made me believe they are going to focus on us rather than their less-affected coverage areas. We’ll see.

Here is an example of poor initialization. Show of hands: does anyone remember when I said the models for the last couple of months have underforecasted precipitation amounts?

Here’s last night’s through 6 pm tonight precip forecast:

Here is live reporting straight from the DWG Command Center:

7:06 pm

Here is the same model for precipitation from 6 pm tonight through Sunday night:

Surface maps once again differ by  100s of miles. I am checking out for a few hours.

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Thursday Morning Updates- Additions To Flood Locations Please Read!

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3 am

For the first time in a while, there are MANY changes to discuss, but they all concern flood potential.  I discovered a “vulnerability” (for lack of a better term) on the River Forecast Center site that is very unfriendly to casual users. I will cover that in just a moment. First I want to cover the precipitation models

Going forward for this event, rather than showing all the models, I’m going to show only the European model for a few reasons.

  1. The European was the first model to pick up on this precipitation event days before any other model.
  2. The European was also the first model to pick up on the secondary system that will affect us this weekend.
  3. The European model has more versatile parameters that let me show rainfall left to fall for any given time period.
  4.  Tracking the flooding potential will take extra time now that I’ve discovered issues with the River Forecast site.

Here is the latest European showing rain left to fall from 6 am this morning to the last drop Sunday night/Monday morning.

 

 River Forecast Site Issues

Some locations don’t have Flood Stage and Action Stage data. They aren’t flagged as at risk because the data is missing. Some are shown as “normal”; others are listed as “significant rise”- which, ironically, shows a green dot on the location. I say that because they use a yellow dot for “action stage” and a red dot for “flood stage”. So, normal thought progression when you look at that is: red dot=warning; yellow dot=caution; green dot must be safe?

Not so much! When you look at historical data for some of those locations, the current forecast peak is, in some cases, higher than the historical high, yet it is flagged by a green dot!

This definitely answers all the “what about Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos/ etc.” questions we had. As I said, I was as surprised as everyone; now I know why.

New data will be out in 3 hours, I think. They did a model update last night, early evening, a lot of rain has fallen since then… So I will limit this to the new locations. And do a more detailed update mid-morning. The last two days, they have done an update around 8-9 am.

Los Pinos is forecast to hit a historic peak: 6.93 feet with 2806 CFS peaking at 6 am Friday morning.  This exceeds the 2019 runoff.

Vallecito Creek is forecast to peak in the top 3 historic flows: 4.22 feet with 2,745 cfs, peaking Friday morning at 6 am.

Durango Pump Station south of town is forecast to reach a historical peak: 8.35 feet with 7401 cfs.  ****** The biggest effects will be south of River Oaks, especially heading south on La Posta Rd. Jack Rabbit area and Weaselskin come to mind. Residents in that area should understand the significance of exceeding the prior high set in 2019!*****

Cherry Creek at Red Mesa: No historical data is available. Current observation shows 1.06 feet with 0 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.94 feet with 113 cfs Friday at 6 am.

La Plata River below  Cherry Creek near Red Mesa: No historical data available. Current observation: 2.94 feet with 124 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.83 feet with 645 cfs Friday at noon.

Piedra near Arboles: Forecast to hit the 4th highest level in history. Forecast peak 6.21 with 5311 cfs Friday at 6 pm.

I hope to get the latest data and have the Flooding Update out by noon!

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 12:30 pm

The models initialized pretty well on rain start times across the forecast area.  That is encouraging or scary depending on your perspective.

While I am thinking about it, keep this in the back of your mind. If you have watched any weather media lately, you have probably heard about Super Typhoon Champi (pronounced Chompy). Champi is big enough that it could recurve all the way from Asia to Alaska’s Bering Sea, wreaking complete havoc on the fishing fleet (probably ending up in next year’s Deadliest Catch episodes).

From there it could slide down the Canadian Coast, then the Pacific Northwest Coast, slide all the way down to the Central/Southern California Coast, and end up as a big storm in our backyards. I don’t have models that track that far yet; this is pure intuition.  I might be wrong; I’ll have a better idea in 7-10 days when the models can pick it up.

I got dangerously close to heading down the rabbit hole there…

The WPC NOAA Weather Prediction Center) finally updated their ERO (Excessive Rain Outlook) today; nothing like waiting until the last minute.

Here are the latest crazy model runs. I will not be surprised when the reports are logged if we see totals higher than forecast guidance.

These forecast totals run from 6 am this morning through Sunday night.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

NBM

German

GFS AI

European

Canadian

I’ll be back in the morning.

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Tuesday Afternoon Update: Too Big To Ignore!

On By durangoweatherguy

10/20/26 Tuesday Noon

Morning models are slightly slowing the onset of heavy precipitation (again), as expected.

Overview

Nothing meaningful has changed; showers and storms will start moving into the area tomorrow. Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated, more on this in a moment.

Here are the latest precipitation forecast models through Friday night.

NBM

German

Canadian

European

GFS AI-  I fired the old original GFS. It is not dependable; it flip-flops all of the time and forecasts scenarios that could never happen with our terrain. I have been tracking the GFS AI for a while, and it is impressive. That’s the first time I have ever used the words GFS and Impressive together.

Time to revisit what I said earlier: “Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated”

That is an understatement. It’s also why I named this post “Too Big To Ignore!”

I have mentioned a couple of times that the Euro doesn’t stop raining on Friday; it continues through Sunday night/Monday morning. All of the other models are now on board with this solution. If this happens, I will have to update all of the flood areas; this could become a big problem. The maps I posted above are for precipitation through Friday night.

If I extend these models through Sunday night. Look at what it does to those totals:

German Model through Sunday night

Canadian Model through Sunday night

European Model through Sunday Night

GFS AI through Sunday night- that is a scary 10 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek Pass. Canadian showed 8.5 inches

To complicate things further, there is a slight chance we could see lower snow levels this weekend.

If you did not read my last update on current areas forecasted to have potential flooding issues, you can read it here: Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

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Tuesday Morning Update: Storm Extends Through Next Weekend??

On By durangoweatherguy

10 20/26 Tuesday 4 am

What Changed Overnight

For the last week, the European has been showing “leftovers,” extending the rain into the weekend. They were the only model to do this. Guess what? All of the other models crowded into that same solution overnight. One or two more days of moderate rain would greatly increase the totals.

Most models add an extra 1 to 2 inches, on top of the already high projected totals. For now, I am going to set the weekend aside until I can determine what the models are trying to lock onto. In the back of your minds, you can add an extra inch or so to prepare/mentally prepare, if necessary.

Overview

Another day with very slight chances of rain this afternoon and evening; only light accumulations are expected. Last night, many areas picked up 0.10″ to 0.20″, slightly more than I expected. On Wednesday, widespread moderate rain should enter the area by noon.

Noon is 9 hours later than the models showed a couple of days ago. That is why I haven’t been married to start and stop times; this almost always happens with Southern California low-pressure systems. By the way, most of the time, delay = strengthening… 

Moderate rain enters the picture by noon on Wednesday; it will get progressively heavier as the day wears on. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue for most of the night into Thursday. On Thursday heavy to very heavy rain will dominate the forecast for at least 24 to 36 hours. As far as we know…

I say that to remind everyone things are constantly evolving; more delays (an even later start on Wednesday) wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Here are the overnight weather models’ forecast for event precipitation through Friday afternoon (only).

NBM (NOAA): This usually conservative model continues to spread high totals across the entire forecast area. It is the only model (so far) that has not bought off on the weekend rains. As soon as it does, I’ll be all in. If I had to bet, I would say we will see that happen by later today.

European

German

Canadian

I will be back between 1 and 4 pm today. Please check it out in case there are changes.

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