10/22/2026 Thursday 5:30 pm
River Forecast Center just time-stamped their earlier update. That means they released the same data as the previous post and labeled it the most recent. This makes me think we may not get an update until morning. This also makes me think old precip data is still being fed in.
If you’re new, I tend to overprotect SW Colorado to the extent that it sounds like I am digging at NWS. That’s not the case, but if I strongly disagree, I will let everyone know, as I have.
The flood warning text made me believe they are going to focus on us rather than their less-affected coverage areas. We’ll see.
Here is an example of poor initialization. Show of hands: does anyone remember when I said the models for the last couple of months have underforecasted precipitation amounts?
Here’s last night’s through 6 pm tonight precip forecast:
Here is live reporting straight from the DWG Command Center:
7:06 pm
Here is the same model for precipitation from 6 pm tonight through Sunday night:
Surface maps once again differ by 100s of miles. I am checking out for a few hours.