Friday Morning Update: Slight Concerns With Higher Totals

On November 13, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/13/26 Friday 4:30 am

I nailed my sleep last night, so I’m well rested and thinking more clearly this morning than yesterday.

Yesterday I talked about the RRFS model. I said that model has everything I need in its core to help me produce better forecasts in our highly varied terrain.

As far as I can see, past model runs from the RRFS were, and still are, producing more precipitation from the Saturday storm than the other models.

I am also seeing higher snow levels at the start of the storm than the other models. The RRFS shows rain up to the 9,500 ft level until about 8 am tomorrow.

I know what you’re thinking, so let me say that, at the moment, I see no evidence of widespread flooding. However, there is one area I am concerned about: Los Pinos below Vallecito. With the active (apparent) release still taking place, I hope there is no complacency going into tomorrow’s underforecasted storm.

As I said when we were dealing with the flooding, I am not a hydro guy; the residents along the rivers have helped better educate me on local nuances.

But here is the RRFS total liquid precipitation forecast accumulation by 8 am tomorrow.

Zoomed in

If you look at the NE portion of La Plata County, you can see bullseyes up to an inch above Vallecito in roughly 4-6 hours. If that is manageable, that is great. But I hope the right people aren’t counting on less precipitation, as most models have been showing all week. But as I said earlier, the other models seem to be increasing their totals run by run to catch up with the RRFS.

There is a bullseye in the La Plata as well, which should not affect the Animas, but it may raise the levels of its tributaries. However, the snow level will lower earlier over the La Platas than the NE part of the county.

So I am not sending out a panic call here, but I would say those living along these creeks should continue to be vigilant.

This is a perfect place for me to stop, as I am running a little behind schedule on the home front. My afternoon update will be out before 2 pm.

Cash App users: $JGDWG

ZELLE: jgivenscbr@gmail.com

Prefer to send a check? Click below to request instructions.

Click here to submit any questions

Submit or search Precipitation Reports

Sunday Afternoon Concerns and Flood Data

On November 1, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

11/1/26 Sunday 2:30 pm

I will cover the new river forecasts in a moment. If I didn’t post your hydrograph, nothing has changed since their earlier update (according to them)…

Overview

I am glad the River People updated, but still concerned. For example, they increased the forecast peak and CFS for Animas at Cedar Hill, but left the Animas at Durango unchanged (both locations).

Raising Cedar Hill straight into Flood Stage at 11.24 ft and 9,603 cfs while leaving Durango idling barely in Action Stage makes zero physical sense to me. Cedar Hill cannot magically conjure 9,600 cfs out of thin air unless the bulk of that volume passes straight through the Durango gauges first. Especially with the Junction Creek diversion this afternoon.

Also, I am concerned because the models continue to show the snow levels dropping before midnight, which would slow runoff. I hope it happens, but show of hands, long-term followers: how many times have we gone to bed seeing the models bring the cold front through in the middle of the night? Then we wake up look at the surface maps, and it’s still in western Utah. A lo of timest is the answer.

It’s still raining everywhere up to about 11,500. If you look at the Day Lodge webcam at Wolf Creek, look to the right, look below the deck, and check out the runoff.

If you have been looking at the webcams trying to decide what is rain and what is snow, don’t look at the color; look at the speed. Rain falls faster than snow.

All of this makes me question the aggressive NWS snowfall forecast for Purgatory. Now, it should be different for Telluride because when that front comes through, the flow will shift to the Northwest. So I could make a case for good snow there tomorrow.

Also, Wolf Creek is weird, it is such a wall it likes to suck every ounce of Southwest flow for hours/days after the moisture has left our area. Same situation; I could see Wolf Creek getting decent snow tomorrow.

Latest Flood Data: Again, if you are not on here, your situation is (supposedly) unchanged.

If something changes this evening and I am awake, I will post; otherwise, I will be up early.

Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11

OR