11/1/26 Sunday 3:30 am
I am waiting for the river people to update before I post the hydrographs. They updated at 10 pm last night with big changes. Things are looking much worse.
Animas at Durango (both sites) are forecast to be over action stage; I see nothing that will stop them from going higher.
Pagosa Springs is going to be devastated. The last flood 10 days ago hit 15.2 feet; it is now forecast to peak at 19.7 feet.
Mancos River is forecast to hit historic levels. La Plata River at Hesperus is forecast to hit historic levels. Dolores at Rico is forecast to peak within inches of where it was 10 days ago.
Animas at Silverton is forecast to equal the peak from 10 days ago. Animas at Farmington is already forecast to hit within 7 inches of 10 days ago.
Rain started about 6 hours earlier than the models had forecast. So the River models were not only using lagging data last night; they were using incorrect data. As I said, when the new forecasts come out, I will post full details. I just wanted to give everyone an overview to read when they woke up.