1/4/26 Sunday 5 am

Today

Warmer temps will be back on track today. Flurries are possible across higher-elevation areas at or above 10,000 feet.

Tomorrow

A weak system in northwest flow will deliver anything from flurries to a couple of inches of snow for the NW San Juans. I have my eye on a couple of models highlighting Lizard Head Pass for a better chance of accumulation over 3 inches. I will have plenty of time to re-evaluate that tomorrow morning before the precipitation chances increase by midday.

Late Week Storm

After a couple of days of agreement, the models have decided to go their separate ways and pursue their own solutions for the late-week storm. Officially, my cautiously optimistic tone is back to neutral until the models come back together.

What I am seeing is the European model still indicating a storm that would deliver advisory snow amounts for both the mountains and lower elevations. That while the GFS now takes the moisture source south a few hundred miles, we get nothing.

Nothing has changed with the current conditions or current locations of the systems involved. Either the GFS is setting the trend, or it is lost. I have been reviewing many more models than I usually do this morning for clues, and finding none.

It is not unusual to see some divergence, but when the systems are still over the ocean, the models cannot converge on a solution. Hopefully, by Tuesday, we will see the models get back together for improved guidance.

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1/3/26 Saturday 3:30 am

It looks like my suspicions regarding the surface maps were correct, as low elevation precipitation ground to a halt yesterday morning. The biggest fail from the weather models was Wolf Creek getting 5 inches of snow out of the storm.

NNW flow kicked in as expected.

Purgatory 2 inches

Molas 4 inches

Monument (snow slide south of Ouray) 5 inches

Coal Bank 7 inches

Red Mountain 8.5 inches

DWG HQ official total was 0.51 inches of liquid. Similar totals were common in my area with slightly enhanced precipitation rates in the westerly (transitional) flow.

Temperatures will rebound over the next couple of days.  Sunday and Monday, low pressure spinning off the coast of Southern California will usher in moisture to our area. On Monday, energy well to the north may combine to produce flurries to light snow mostly over the NW San Juans. At this point, I expect minimal (if any) impacts.

The next storm, the one I referred to yesterday as a “proper snowstorm,” could be arriving mid to late week.  The models show this possibility as a result of a large trough flattening the ridge, moving arctic air into the region.

It’s the classic: cold air infiltration into moist air from the Pacific — the infamous “perfect storm” setup. Not necessarily huge, but very productive, high-ratio snow totals.

Sounds too good to be true? After what we have experienced this year so far? Of course, it sounds too good to be true!  Is it possible? Sure, it is. It has to happen sometime…

All of the models are on board so far, which is good. So I will be cautiously optimistic. However, while the models are on board, their timing varies. The GFS is fastest, favoring late Wednesday into Thursday. The other models favor Thursday-Friday evening.

Another factor favoring the storm is the High School Athletics schedule. Just as holidays seem to attract storms, so does traveling for HS athletic events.  It is all part of my “Most Inconvenient Timing Scenario”. Simply put, storms tend to occur whenever groups of people have to drive over the passes.

I will monitor the models closely to see if any diverge from the stormy solution. I will be posting daily this week, so make sure you check in daily for the latest!

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1/2/26 Friday 4:30 am

As for liquid-equivalent precipitation, the storm is outperforming the model forecasts.

There is a thick layer of warm air between 6,000 feet and 8,200 feet from 38 to 34 degrees. The snow level is just below 9,000 feet.  Very sloppy.

Conditions are getting tricky over Red Mountain and Wolf Creek passes due to sub-freezing temperatures.  Wolf Creek has dropped to 24 degrees, which is in the optimal range for snow production.  How did all of the models miss that?

When your forecast is for nearly zero, it is not difficult to produce an anomaly!

The weak cold front and trough appear to be back in Western Utah. Assuming that placement is correct, we could have several more hours before the precipitation leaves the area. If it is wrong, and that is not unusual, it may be closer to shutting off the SW flow across the forecast area than we think.

This front is also the catalyst for heavier precipitation in the NW San Juans, where moderate snow is already falling. Also, note, the next storm becoming occluded over the Pacific. That storm looks fairly weak, with a Monday/Tuesday potential arrival.

Later in the week–late Wednesaday/Thursday through the day Friday, I am starting to see signs of a pattern change, with increasing chances of a “proper” snow storm for the entire forecast area, I am trying to keep expectations low, but it is encouraging.

I will be monitoring surface map for updates and will post if I see the morning CPC crew correct any surface model errors. That will give us better details on the timeline.

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1/1/26 Thursday 4:45 am

Percolation complete. I am glad I waited. I noticed that in the later model runs yesterday, the onset of precipitation was delayed until just about now for phase one of this storm.

Yesterday morning, I determined that it would be a two-phase storm with SW flow, transitioning to Westerly, then NW flow, and finishing with a Northerly flow. These setups have low impacts on the lower elevations.

Today: Expect showery precipitation with high-elevation snowfall under a moist southwesterly flow. This flow will split later today; while moisture will continue into the northwest San Juans through most of the evening, a developing westerly flow will begin shutting off precipitation in the lower elevations, particularly east of Durango.

Westerly flow typically favors the western portions of the forecast area—from Montezuma County to the Durango West areas and King Mountain—but temperatures are expected to remain too warm for snow in these locations.

Overnight into Friday: The flow will shift to the northwest, which should increase precipitation rates for the northwest San Juans, specifically from Telluride to Ouray and potentially as far as Ridgway.

 Below 8,000 feet (from Glacier south): For now, I expect event totals of 0.20 to 0.50 inches of rain for areas, most of that falling today. We might get dropping snow levels with a weak trough passage tomorrow, we’ll see.

High Elevations: I expect event totals of 4 to 8 inches of wet, heavy snow by late Friday or early Saturday, with Purgatory likely on the lower end of that range. As the flow transitions tonight, the northwest San Juans will see an increase in both precipitation rates and snow quality. Unless the SW flow portion of the storm comes in stronger than expected, I expect mostly a miss for Wolf Creek.

Travel Impact: Between late tonight and Friday morning, heavier snow could make travel over Lizard Head Pass and the US 550 passes (Coal Bank, Molas, and Red Mountain) a bit tricky. 

I will post again early tomorrow morning, but I will be monitoring the situation throughout the day and, if necessary, will post again today as needed.

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12/31/25 3 pm

Happy New Year’s Eve. Have a great night, I am going to give things another 12 hours to percolate before heading out on the limb…

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12/30/25 Wednesday 5:15 am

I slept until almost five, which has got to be some sort of record for me this year!

Models are pointing to a complicated solution for Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow starts later today, advecting moisture into Southern California. Moisture moves into Arizona with a heavier “blob” sitting over Las Vegas around 11 pm. Moisture reaches our forecast area by tomorrow morning.

Moisture will be arriving in a dry, hostile environment. As always, the moisture will saturate from the top down. Which is why the higher elevations always get in on the action first.

Flow at some point turns westerly, then transitions to northwesterly, and finally northerly. Accurate, specific forecasts will be impossible with such a small amount of moisture. Timing the arrival of moisture relative to upper-level wind patterns (the storm steering track) is not something the models will be good at, because there is basically no energy in the system (or pulses). This makes any precipitation terrain dependent.

I will likely attempt to put a broad-based blanket forecast on it later today, and will monitor the flow throughout the day tomorrow and Friday in case more moisture shows up during one of the wind flow patterns we are in. For example, if all the moisture appears when we are in a particular flow pattern, I will highlight those areas. Call it an on-the-go forecast.

I know it sounds like gibberish, but that is because it’s an unorganized, weak system entering a hostile (storm-killing) environment.

Another similar system may arrive to start the week, with perhaps something else to talk about towards the end of next week.

I’ll be back…

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12/30/25 Tuesday 4:30 am

Maybe “Storm” is too ambitious… How about a not-yet-defined precipitation event (NDPE)? Just made that up.

By the way, thanks to all the DIY folks who emailed me about the disposal. Got it up and running again in just a few minutes!

I picked out a couple of interesting maps this morning. Many were not worthy of making the list. The others I picked based on flow. At this point, I am ignoring the precipitation forecasts.

All models show light precipitation breaking out Thursday morning. Snow levels will be a closely guarded secret until the last minute and will likely remain high until the end.  So, more of the same…

Maps

European shows SW flow, transitioning to WSW.  Here is the problem: with that setup, how can WC be missed? If I were to zoom out, you would see a miss for Crested Butte as well, which always does well with that setup. So problems…

German shows NNW flow transitioning to Westerly, which is why you see higher totals in Montezuma County into western La Plata County. Believable, but likely exaggerated.

HMMM. Classic GFS error, this is Northerly flow (notice the weak gorge event up in Ouray). But then the GFS targets the elevation of the La Platas and somehow delivers 0.30-0.50 inches of liquid in our lower elevations. Highly unlikely in a northerly flow event.

As I said, I am not even looking at the precipitation totals as a forecast, only an indicator. Most models did not make the list. Moisture should begin moving into Arizona late tomorrow, which may give us a clearer view of the forecast. We’ll see.

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12/29/25 Monday 5 am

The overall theme in the weather today is poor model performance, and horrible model performance–more on that in a minute.

Not that they have been trustworthy, but the models have been pointing towards another disturbance entering the forecast area around the New Years.

That continues to be the case. I am going to go out on a limb and call it “more of the same”. A couple of weak pulses potentially coming through on Thursday into Friday.

Beyond that, just as we have seen with the MJO. The models have no clue what they are doing. The worst example I have ever seen since I have been doing this showed up when comparing sequential runs from the US GFS model’s “AI-enhanced” version.

First run- yesterday morning’s 5 am run. These are temperature anomalies (what we used to call departure from average).

The white over Minnesota indicates a forecast for 40+ degree positive anomalies for January 9th (40 degrees above average).

Same model, same time period, 6 hours later.

Negative anomalies! 30+ degree negative anomalies ( 30 degrees below average) over the same area. That’s a 70+ degree change in the forecast in 6 hours!

Not all AI models are this reckless. The GFS has, over the last couple of years, developed the worst AI-enhanced weather model.

It’s no wonder the models are struggling with where to place the MJO. For now, it’s still stuck in the weather circle of death.

I am still catching up on emails. I hope to be caught up by tomorrow. Thank you for all the kind words and support!

After my last update, I had one more thing happen I need advice on: the (huge) kitten has discovered the kitchen counters. She knocked a wine glass into the sink, of course, all of the glass went into the garbage disposal. I have been letting it dry out to get my shop vac in there. Does anyone have experience with getting the disposal working again? Or will I need to call a professional and/or purchase a new disposal?

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12/27/25 Saturday 3:30 am

I find myself in the familiar position of sitting in front of a blank screen, trying to conjure up the correct words to get this update started.

The most notable change I see is that NWS reduced the totals for its Winter Weather (sub)Advisory in its latest release to 4 to 8 inches.

Why is that notable? Because Sub Advisories are not a real thing, 1 month into meteorological winter. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories apply only to the areas where they are issued.

A Winter Weather Advisory above 9,000 feet has specific criteria: 6 to 12 inches of snow. A Winter Storm Warning is the next level up. Above 9,000 feet, it means 12 inches or more of snow.

The criteria for lower elevations are different. In our case, 6,000 feet is considered low elevation. In the heart of winter, 3 to 6 inches for a Winter Weather Advisory, 6 to 12 inches for a Winter Storm Warning. Period. That is the standard, pretty much statewide. The exception would be SE Colorado  (from Pueblo to Kansas and south to New Mexico).

I gotta stop this old man rant (an OMR moment) before it goes off the rails.

Overnight, the models became clearer about these storms’ intentions. Yesterday, I talked about being skeptical. What I saw early signs of was the tale of two storms. One with SW flow, the other with NW flow. I also saw most of the energy in the SW flow staying mostly south, and the NW storm mainly staying north. This sets up our lower elevations for  “mostly a miss”.

The SW flow storm could shift its track but right now the target is SE San Juans with the bullseye just south of Wolf Creek. Most of the colder air does not arrive until Sunday morning and there will likely be a limited amount of moisture left to work with.

At best, we may see a WTI frontal passage (was that it?). I will be very generous and call for 2 to 5 inches of snow from Purgatory up to Coal Bank, Molas and Lizard Head.

Sometimes, when we get those North to South frontal passages it can enhance snow from Ouray to Red Mountain. I would look for potential anomalies there as the temps drop and the liquid-to-snow ratios (LSRs) quickly double. I am not going to go as far as calling it a Gorge Event because it won’t last long enough for that.

Telluride is still a wild card, so I am going to leave it in the 2 to 5 range, upside surprise? Possibly… Lower totals? Possibly…

Wolf Creek still appears to be the best bet for 4 to 8 inches of snow (as I said yesterday). Flurries are already flying across the high country and should increase today.

Overall, another low-impact event for most areas. Exceptions would be the southbound 550 out of Ouray tomorrow morning. And Wolf Creek Pass tonight and tomorrow. Either way, it falls under “normal winter driving conditions”.

OK, I give up. This is what it looks like when I don’t run it through AI, but if I did that, I would have to spend additional time editing AI.

I plan to take a couple of days off from the weather updates to focus on taking care of the household and Sus, catching up on emails, and hopefully a little couch time for me tomorrow. The next best chance of snow will be later in the week or next weekend; however, there is significant uncertainty at the moment.

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12/26/25 Friday 11 am

To put this in a weather context: “When it rains, it pours.” A saying some of us older folks grew up hearing, which means everything happens all at once. Whatever can go wrong will.  I try to keep this blog pretty clean, but you just can’t make this shit up! Sorry.

Susan took a nasty fall this morning and sprained her ankle. Fortunately, she did not break it. But she will be sore for the next couple of days; the ankle pain is overriding the pain from her shoulder that she fell on. That will probably kick in at bedtime.

Bottom line, I am going to be even more time crunched. Tomorrow morning, I will be able to get up early enough to update everyone on the storm I am skeptical of.

Most models show very little, if any, precipitation before Saturday morning.

The biggest benefactor of the upcoming storm (at the moment) looks to be Wolf Creek. Perhaps 4 to 8 inches by Sunday morning. The current model runs keep me skeptical of the northern forecast area’s Winter Weather Advisory from NWS.

Thanks for your patience and understanding. Also, thank you for all of your kind words and outpouring of support. I will be following up on the emails as I am able.

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