11/10/18 Model Verification

Nerd rating: Mild

There are a couple of ways I verify models before I start using them for a post. When it is stormy out I look at the latest model run and compare where the precipitation is compared to where the model’s simulated radar forecasted it to be. I also verify forecasted temps for a particular time. Since we have no local precipitation to track let’s look at how horribly the models verified overnight.

First current 6 am temps, this shows actual temps from reporting stations in Colorado, as you can see at DRO  it is 13 degrees.


Now a look at what the models forecasted, first the GFS. 25 degrees! Horrible forecast.


Euro 22 degrees, it still missed by 9.


Now the HiRes model which in my opinion has one accurate run a day and that is the one due out in an hour. I usually never use the overnight run but here it is. 25 degrees! Huge miss.


What does this mean? It means the models had a bad night. When you read in one of my posts that a model didn’t verify well so I have to wait for another run of the model, this is what I am talking about. Bottom line, I don’t trust those models for data for the very short term (6-12 hours). It does not have a dramatic effect on the longer-term outlook.

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