Ho Ho No

6 am

The top dog at the NWS in Grand Junction (the MIC meteorologist in charge) yesterday upgraded the forecast package and the amounts in the Winter Storm Warning for our Mountains yesterday afternoon in the midst of me writing my update. This threw me off and re-reading my update it is evident I was perplexed. 3 crappy GFS runs later and I am inclined to downgrade the forecast amounts that I bravely put forward. I am going to hold off until all of the morning data comes in. The good news was the stall showed up in all of the models, the bad news is the storm track moved. The Euro still argues for the amounts I set forward, this is for the first storm only, so ending late Wednesday.

neweuro.png

This would likely cover 8″ in Purgatory due to higher snow ratios than 10-1.

The upshot is this is not the only storm and we have seen more surprises this season than predictable events!

BTW after the top dog clocked out yesterday, they changed his warning package back and delayed it 6 hours so is effective at 3 pm today.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
324 AM MST Tue Dec 25 2018

COZ018-019-251830-
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0011.181225T2200Z-181227T0400Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Hesperus
324 AM MST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16
  inches with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains and Northwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Holiday travel will become very difficult
  due to heavy snow and reduced visibility in blowing snow.

 

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