Yesterday afternoon in case you missed it I wrote the following: “A small feature will emerge this evening and could bring some light snow or heavy flurries for the northern 2/3 of the county, but it will favor the La Platas and from Rockwood north and the 550 passes. This could keep going until around 11 am Monday, a little longer from Silverton to Ouray.”
So, that panned out better than the models suggested. Telluride got 5″ in town and Purgatory ended up with 4″ at the snow stake. Just under double what the Euro said last night. The problem with the Euro model is the”evening” run comes out around 11:30 pm, I am an old fart and am usually fast asleep by then. The GFS really missed the boat as did the other models.
Here is the other thing I said yesterday afternoon: “These storms are going to keep us guessing until the end.” That is the best prediction I have ever made. 24 hours after that amazing revelation we still really have no idea what is going to happen with any degree of certainty. We still have the same questions. The Euro has been more consistent than the GFS with model runs run showing 7″ and 3″ at lower elevations near the airport. The GFS has been between 1″ and 4″ by Thursday then it blows up storm 2 on Friday. At Purgatory I have been seeing everything from 6″-22″ depending on which model you look at. When I get posts from people saying “I hope you are right” it concerns me because much of what I do is interpret data and pass it on. People get disappointed when things don’t come together, but seeing the highs and lows in the period leading up to the event affects the forecasters as much as the followers.
Tuesday and Wednesday
It is difficult to discern but it does appear the models are trending towards a later arrival of the storm. This is very important, highs near 40 would wipe out any low elevation snow. As I mentioned, the GFS is still going big on the second storm. The latest run shows a 2-5″ in town with an 8-10″ at Purgatory for storm one. Storm two is still crazy with this model. Here is what the GFS says for the two storms.
These models bump back and forth between eastside and westside. There is a big problem with storm track at the moment.
I hate doing this, but I am going to, assuming it does not drift completely south. I would say 6-12″ for Purgatory by Thursday noon. In town, I hate this but 2-5″ looks likely. For everyone from 7400′ -8200′, this is a huge problem, 3-6″ looks most likely. How many times have I talked about the Southern surprise? Southern folks below 6500 could get zero snow on the first storm and big snow on the second.
Next Update Tuesday.