11:30 am

Precipitation amounts continue to trend up in both short-term and long-term US models, which is encouraging to see the day before it approaches our area. If everything goes as the models are showing this storm could have a little something for everyone. At the moment they are showing this storm to be bigger, stronger, a little colder and snowier than the last one.

Too good to be true?

I am not dismissing what I am seeing, but I want to see a few more model runs before I can let my guard down. I noticed when reading the NWS forecast discussion and a couple of other places that they also have their guards up. It is difficult not to think that way when you add up the wind profiles the temperatures and the moisture it almost seems too good to be true. I am writing this as I wait for the Euro, if it joins the US models and trends up also I would be very surprised if we didn’t see the NWS ramp up their snowfall totals for lower elevations this afternoon. The problem is it is difficult to take that back so they may wait for another forecast cycle (12 hours or so). I would not plan to travel over Wolf Creek after dark tomorrow.

Here is the latest GFS run from this morning. These are the liquid precipitation totals. Multiply the amounts shown by 15 for elevations around 6,600′. Multiply by 18-20 for elevations aoa  (at or above) 7,500′.

 See what I mean? Now the GFS is a little lower resolution than some of the other models. Here is the highest resolution model I have access to. I usually don’t like to reference it until the day that the storm starts. But check out Wolf Creek.

You can see the similarities to the GFS but this model is able to target smaller areas.             Model resolution refers to the grid area that the particular model averages the conditions (temperatures and precipitation etc)over. The lower the resolution, the larger the grid. The GFS has an 8-mile grid, the Euro has a 5.6-mile grid, the HiRes WRF has a 1.8-mile grid. Don’t get model resolution mixed up with model accuracy. All models have their moments and the only clue you get as to how accurate they may be is their consistency. If they go back and forth right before the storm that leads to a lack of confidence.

Ok, the Euro is just coming out and it is a monster run. Remember the Euro is higher resolution than the GFS model, about 40%. Wow, wow, wow, I can’t wait to see how the National Weather Service handles this!

Too good to be true? Stay tuned…

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