2:30 pm

The afternoon NAM and HiRes WRF came out much wetter. This is a timing issue because it is delaying the integration between the Pacific storm and the subtropical tap. This is a good thing. The Euro came out higher, you have to keep in mind the Euro’s morning run comes out around noon. If it did have an afternoon run I think it would trend up higher, the problem is it won’t be out until I am asleep

The NAM and WRF were up considerably over their morning run, they did this with the last storm, so I am inclined to believe them. Here is the HiRes WRF.

There are a lot more pretty colors on this run than the last!

Based on what I am seeing, there may be a number of mid-elevation areas that will fall into Warning criteria, but I would be surprised if the NWS makes the change from Advisory to Warning, but I bet they are thinking about it!

This continually increasing model indicates 4-8″ for Mancos, Breen, Durango, and Bayfield. 6-10″ for DWest 1&2, Rafter, Trappers, Shenandoah, Long Hollow, and Falls Creek, to the west. Forest Lakes, Bear Creek, Vallecito, and Lemon plus all of the communities on 240 from Edgemont to Enchanted Forest.  Pagosa area should also be in that 6-10″ range depending on elevation.

There could be a couple of surprises over a foot to the east around Vallecito as well as between DWest1&2 to the north and Long Hollow to the south (somewhere between those areas) on the west side.

I am hoping for 8-12″ at Purgatory. The models have been all over the place for Purg.    10-15″ for Mayday, and Wolf Creek 20-25″. Cortez, Aztec, Farmington hopefully 1-3″.

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