Slow Start

10 am

The very short term models were over enthusiastic with the start of this system. The exception was Purgatory where things kicked into gear and the heavier snow showers have helped keep the temperatures down. If the temperatures rise much higher the snow will slow this afternoon after a good morning start. Overall, I expect 7-12 inches from this first storm ending Thursday night. About the same in Telluride, unless the winds change earlier than I anticipated. Telluride should have most of their snow tonight through Thursday night. Wolf Creek appears to be doing just fine and it will continue to throughout the day, tonight and tomorrow. This system does not have a lot of ummppphh behind it to create strong lift into Wolf Creek so I would say 8-14 is a good bet by the end of the day tomorrow.

Heavier rain has been slow to develop over the lower elevations, at least at my place, its been more of a heavy mist The Euro insists that will change this afternoon delivering 2/10 to 1/2 of an inch of liquid to areas by Thursday evening.

Moisture is evident (in green) on the colored water vapor satellite imagery below, you can see we are just on the cusp.

Capture

The integrated surface map and radar give you a perspective of where most of the activity is happening now.

map

It will be interesting to see if there is any accumulating snow below 8,500 feet with this one.

There will be a very short break before the next system rolls in on Friday morning, it will be colder and a couple of inches in town could be possible at the end of the storm.

The next system is going to come in via Flagstaff and if the models are trending correctly it could be quite a storm with the perfect mix of cold air and deep moisture.

Although it is not always accurate to look 10 days ahead, it always a good sign when you have strong model agreement that far into the future. Here is what the Euro shows for snow next week, Monday morning through Friday evening, so it doesn’t include the totals for these first two storms.

ecmwf_snow_120_colorado_40

I don’t know about you but my snow piles are plenty low, time to reload!

Next update on Friday morning.

 

 

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