What Do May Showers Bring?

 

Hopefully, everyone had a nice weekend. There is no change to my thinking that we will continue to see showers on and off with a better chance of a more organized storm later this week. For today, I would expect a few showers to pop up between 3-5 pm.

I am starting to get some questions regarding the Arizona Monsoon. Longtime followers know my reluctance to label our rainy season the Monsoon, I don’t like debating it. Obviously, we get more rain during  Arizona and New Mexico’s Monsoon season. The “Monsoon Experts” still debate when it actually starts. The commonly accepted process is to say that it starts on June 15th.  The technical explanation is that it occurs after a period of several days when the dewpoint in Tucson exceeds 65 degrees. All of that being said the question that people want to know is what do I expect for the Monsoon season this year.

While I do not know what to expect specifically from the Monsoon, I do expect the wet conditions to continue for us. The Euro 46 day once again shows below average temperatures and above average precipitation through mid-June.

Here is the temperature outlook through June 23rd

eps_t2m_1104h_west_185.png

Here is the precipitation forecast for the same time period.

 

eps_qpf_1104h_west_185.png

 

Historically, it takes until July 1st-20th or so for our rainy season to start. With our above average rain prior to the start of our rainy season, the soil will be wetter which helps facilitate convection (thunderstorms etc.) Because the precipitation is forecast to be just slightly above average, the soil will be in better shape for absorption. Last year the soils were dry and hard and the few showers we got had a difficult time absorbing and would run off and provide very little benefit. Think of a sponge, if a sponge dries out for several days and you spill on a counter and try to clean it up with the dry shriveled up sponge it won’t work. However, if you have a sponge that is just slightly wet it will absorb the spill. Of course, if the sponge is completely saturated it won’t work either. What I am getting at is I think we will be in excellent shape to take advantage of the rainy season when it decides to show up.

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2 thoughts on “What Do May Showers Bring?

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