10 am

The best chances for rain will be tomorrow afternoon and Monday. According to the Euro we will mostly see nuisance rains, they won’t add up to much and will just make the dust wet, however, the GFS is more enthusiastic about the rain totals. The only problem is the GFS is not the old GFS, for the last 18 months or so they were testing the new GFS FV 3, they integrated the new version earlier this week, so the new GFS is now the only GFS and although it was in test mode and I have had access to it, it was largely only on a national scale, I have not had the opportunity to use it for us at the local level, so I have no idea how accurate it is. I am happy that they did this in the summer rather than the winter.

So here is what the Euro has for rain between Saturday and Monday night

And here is what the (new) GFS shows

This is quite a difference, if this model is accurate with most of it falling tomorrow it may impact rivers in some areas. We have been so fortunate to have this dry weather during the runoff, hopefully, that will continue.

Speaking of rivers…

Here is a snapshot of Southwest Colorado

Here is what is left of the snowpack

Most sites no longer display percentages but looking at the raw data is interesting, it looks like Vallecito should finish up any day now. However, the Columbus Basin in the La Platas is still showing a normal season of snowpack yet to go, Wolf Creek, Spud Mountain, Red Mountain Pass and a couple of others still have very impressive totals yet to runoff.

All of these graphs are pretty self-explanatory

Animas

Pine- btw can you believe the Pine’s record was higher than the record set by the Animas in 1911? The Pine reached 12.2′ in 1957.

La Plata

Mancos

San Juan

Dolores

I think most of the advisories affecting the Dolores are near Rico.

The Euro weeklies were updated last night and show more of the same, temperatures slowly moving into the seasonal normal levels especially as we get into July.

Here is what it shows for precip over the next 46 days.

Two things on this map jump right out at me. The red in Mexico up to the Arizona and New Mexico border, and the red in the Carribean. These are totals below average so you have to compare this with what usually happens this time of year, Monsoon and Hurricane season, so it appears that we will have below normal tropical activity for the Pacific and Atlantic near the US and the Monsoon season will be slow to get going.  This is a long way out meteorologically, but I would say that it will be after July 15th for southern Arizona and the end of July before things bump up here.

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