We have been so fortunate the way things have played out from the drought killing winter to the cool spring limiting the snow melt.  Speaking of cool springs check this picture off the webcam at Yellowstone this morning.

The tail end of cold front responsible for this is headed this way, but there will only be very minor impacts in the form of slightly below average lows temps. Monday we could see some more pop up showers returning and later in the week as well. This time of year the short term and intermediate models really struggle, which is why you don’t see too many forecasts this time of year from me.

Rivers Update

So most of the rivers in the area will be at just below flood stage and will naturally peak over the next 24-72 hours.  I always get questions about the historic 1911 flood this time of year. There is a huge difference between now and then, that flood occurred in October when the remnants of a tropical storm set up over the San Juans. So there is absolutely no way to compare the two. Interestingly enough the 1910-1911 Winter was average for snowfall with 67″ downtown, although 57 of the 67 inches all fell in February.

These forecasts vary daily and if we get a couple spots with heavy showers in the next couple of days it will obviously affect the flow.

Here is the Animas

Once again here is the explanatory text for what 7 feet etc mean.

Flood Impacts

16.5
Water reaches the bottom of the East 32nd Street Bridge. Devastating flooding is occurring through Durango with many buildings near the highway 160 bridge and between the Animas River and Hwy 550 south of 15th street flooded.
13
Floodwaters are approaching the bases of several bridges in Durango including the West 9th Street Bridge the US 550 bridge and the Animas River Trail pedestrian bridges. Debris dams and backwater flooding is possible making these bridges unsafe.
12.5
Large portions of the Animas River Trail and adjacent buildings and parking lots along the Animas River between the Hwy 160 bridge and the Hwy 550 bridge are flooded.
12
Portions of the Animas River Trail are flooded with adjacent businesses and residences threatened. Major flooding is occurring north of Durango in Trimble and Hermosa. Major Flooding is occurring at the Durango Trout Hatchery.
11
The area surrounding the Durango Fish Hatchery is flooding. Water is nearing the base of the Rio Grande Western Railroad Bridge adjacent to 15th Street.
10
Major flooding is occurring in the Val-Air Glider field and hangars.
9.69
The Dalton Ranch Golf Club is beginning to flood. Some dikes topped north of Durango.
9
Significant overbank flow is occurring in Durango.
8.5
Flooding of the Durango and Silverton narrow gauge railroad between Tacoma and Needleton is occurring.
8
Minor flooding of agricultural lands and residential structures north of Durango is occurring. Water is nearing sections of the Rio Grande Western Railroad north of Durango.
7
Agricultural lands north of Durango are experiencing minor flooding. Portions of the Val-Air Gliderport field are flooded.
6
Lowland flooding is likely in the vicinity of Timble and Hermosa.
5.5
White water rafting on the Animas River above Durango becomes hazardous.

 

I don’t have the impacts for the other rivers but I do have the forecasts

La Plata

Mancos

Dolores seems to have peaked

San Juan at Pagosa

To illustrate how much a persistent stalled storm can impact river flow, this happened in Texas a couple of days ago.

 

Summer Update

Meteorological Summer started 7 days ago and in most areas, it is playing the part pretty well. The rest of June looks to be near normal to slightly below normal temperatures and believe it or not below normal precipitation, this is according to the new Euro 46 day run, it would surprise me if that happens, but if we are below normal for precip in June remember June is the driest month of the year for us. As we slide into July at the moment, it looks like we will transition to slightly above normal temperatures.

I also get asked a lot about Monsoon Season. All I can say about it, for now, is Monsoon=Not Soon. I expect a late start or a “Nonsoon” this year.

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