Last Thursday we expected a split flow storm with a jet streak coming in overnight and bringing snow through early Friday. That didn’t pan out, but we were able to squeeze a few inches out of some leftover shortwaves that moved through Friday. Tonight and into tomorrow morning we have another jet streak and associated moisture that is supposed to move in from the southwest.
This seems to have a little more going for it, however, it is the primary and only feature with this system. After this, the pattern flips back to an NW flow situation favoring northern and central mountain locations.
Believe it or not, this will be the 16th snowfall since November 20th, even though they haven’t all been eventful we keep getting snow. I live at 7,460 feet and I have had 47″ fall in the same time period, of course, some of that has melted but there is still some depth in north-facing areas. Last year at this time I had already had 81″ and it was still all on the ground. So while it’s nothing like last year, we have still had much worse years than this.
This should be a sub-advisory little storm. I would expect widespread 1-3″ amounts across the area with pockets of 3-6″ and more near Mayday. This is the type of storm that could produce higher amounts for places like Long Hollow and Shenandoah than Purgatory. I am not saying it is going to happen, I am saying it is that type of weak system that sometimes runs out of gas the further north it gets past 160.
This could also miss us like last Friday morning, but because I have to get my car washed today and I will be with clients driving all over tomorrow, I think this system has a pretty good chance of making it to us.
I don’t expect winter highlights to be posted with this one unless we hit advisory amounts. Let me explain that one a bit better. It does not happen very often anymore, but occasionally you will see the NWS issue advisories because we already received advisory amount snowfall. I call those a DUH Advisory. It always seemed pointless to me. It would like issuing a tornado warning 20 minutes after a tornado tears through a town.
If for some reason the models flip today or they do decide to issue an advisory before it starts snowing, I will post again.