The snow has started in a number of areas, especially in the western half of La Plata County. It does not appear that moisture is making it very far north yet (4:30 am).
The snow should periodically pick up in intensity later this morning. The only issue I see would be temps below 7,000 feet. This is a warm branch storm that has good moisture, but the models are struggling with temps later today just slightly above freezing which could lead to melting at the surface.
As far as upside surprises go, the models are hinting that we could see a few higher amounts west of 550 today.
Here is the latest Hi-Resolution guidance, however, the NWS in their discussion says that even 2-4 inches along 160 west of Durango “seems unlikely”. We will see, I did wash my car so that should help.
I will update when the first morning models generate, hopefully they look as good as this does!