Monday Morning Update: No Model Model Changes For Moisture Packed Storm

This Week

My plan for my posts this week is to do a morning storm update each day until Wednesday. Starting Wednesday afternoon, I will add an afternoon storm update. Monday afternoon (today) and Tuesday afternoon I will kick off my new Weather 101 series which will drill down on some concepts and terms that I often use and/or refer to in my posts. This will be ongoing for the next couple of weeks, at least.

Today and Tomorrow

For today and tomorrow expect more of the same, a little more sun today than yesterday, a few more clouds tomorrow than today. Temperatures are forecasted to be slightly warmer than average for the next couple of days. unless you are in the sun and sheltered from the wind, it may not feel like it.

As I have gotten older I am a bigger believer in “apparent temperature” which combines all meteorological conditions to arrive at how the temperature is perceived by humans. The Weather (marketing) media refers to this as “reel-feel”. Back in the day, it was referred to as “windchill”. Or, as I referred to it as a child in Iowa in the early ’70s; the “windshield” temperature. “As in, “the windshield is supposed to be minus 60!” You can imagine the chunky/husky-nerdy kid at the bus stop talking about it, that was me…

Storm Update

I have definitely moved into the cautiously optimistic category over the next 24 hours, the models have changed very little. With only a couple of slight differences, there remains consensus in timing and accumulation amounts. depending on which model you look at very early Wednesday to late Wednesday is when things start. My default is almost always later, but that is a detail still to work out. Early indications are that this storm will be colder than the last.

Euro Analysis

The Euro is showing the precip starting midday, and starting to ramp up by late afternoon. The Euro is trying to also navigate a big piece of leftovers for Saturday and Sunday. I have stopped tracking the accumulations as soon as the first system wraps up on Friday. So these accumulations are through Friday. Here are the last two runs, in order, for total accumulations through Friday for the Euro model.





Canadian Analysis

The Canadian model introduces the precipitation much earlier than the other two models, between midnight and 6 am Wednesday. The Canadian is also struggling with the leftover component and in one case thinks the weekend storm may be wetter than the primary, I don’t necessarily consider this a red flag. The details will be emerging soon. Here are the last two runs, in order, for total accumulations through Friday for the Canadian model.





GFS Analysis

The GFS shows the latest start, with precipitation developing in the afternoon and heavier precipitation starting Wednesday evening. The GFS also shows a potential for more precipitation over the weekend, but not as much as the other two models. Once again the trademark “wavy” precipitation output is evident in this model. Here are the last two runs, in order, for total accumulations through Friday for the GFS model.





German ICON Model Analysis

Some of the Global models, like this one, do not display the same detailed parameters in the United States like the GFS, Canadian and Euro models do. So while I can’t compare apples to apples of how it gets to its results, I can still show you totals. Here are the last two runs, in order, for total accumulations through Friday for the German model.






All of the models show precipitation starting sometime on Wednesday. All models are struggling with how large of emphasis to put on energy left behind that would result in another storm for us starting either late Friday night or Saturday through Sunday. The Euro is very ambitious and is even trying to bring in another system at the beginning of next week. It is far too early to focus on that third storm that Euro favors. However, the chance for a second storm next weekend is something that cannot be overlooked, details should be emerging soon.

Thank you, for following, and thank you for continuing to support this site. The new Weather 101 series will kick off this afternoon, I hope you enjoy it!

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