Monday Fun Day Update

So far we have been fortunate to have some precipitation reach the ground. The highest amounts have been east of 550 and north of Rockwood. From Hesperus to Durango roughly .05″ inches of rain have fallen. East of 550 and into the Bayfield area south of Forest Lakes an average of .10″ has fallen. North of Rockwood up to San Juan County, as well as Lemon and Vallecito, have seen up to .15″. This has had more of a psychological benefit than a climatological benefit. It felt good to wake to rain, but it is not going to a whole lot of good, unless, something changes later today.

There are two scenarios for this afternoon and it all depends on the sun. If we get a break in the clouds and the sun is able to heat up the surface it could be a very bumpy ride this afternoon with thunderstorms developing. If it stays cloudy there is still a chance of thunderstorm development, but they will be spotty and not as strong. I don’t know which is the better scenario. If we get some severe storms developing we could get some brief heavy rain and graupel in some areas.

According to the short term models that should happen. Here is the cloud cover model for this afternoon.

Here is 2 pm, it shows the cloud cover in the Durango area reducing to 40% and Montezuma County at 15%. In this scenario, storms would fire and move from West to East.


Here is 3 pm, at this point, the model is predicting cloud cover in Durango falling to 19%, while Montezuma County is back up over 50%.


The CAPE model falls right into place with this line of thinking.

Here are the max CAPE values at 1 pm.


And here are the max cape values at 3 pm, note the 1567 at DRO with some areas of La Plata County in 1800-2100 range!

monday cape

If this model is right the bumpy ride scenario will win out. You don’t need me or these models to help you plan. Just keep your eyes to the sky, if the sun is shining strong this afternoon, chances are we will get those storms.

Thanks for following. Montezuma County, since things would start their first (according to the models) let me know this afternoon if things fire up over there.

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