Everything Points Towards A Stormy Afternoon But…

Light showers have developed to our west, southwest, and north. Clouds have moved in earlier than expected, and cloud cover can suppress storm development. So while the high-resolution model shows all of the necessary ingredients in place, the clouds are shaking my confidence slightly with the forecast.

Here are the noon CAPE and PWATs. PWATs-Precipitable Water values are how much liquid would accumulate if it fell in a vertical column at once over on location.

CAPE

nooncape

PWATs-.70″ at DRO is 160% of normal for this time of year.

noonpwat

Here are the 4 pm values.

CAPE

4pmcape

PWATs-.86″ is 180% of normal.

4pmpwat

7 pm

CAPE7pmcape

PWATs-.94″ is 190% of normal

7pmpwat

So we have CAPE (available energy in the atmosphere), and significantly high PWATs, all of the necessary ingredients. Ideally, we would get some strong surface heating, but this time of year, even with cloud cover, the high angle of the sun can contribute enough heating to enhance convection. We will see.

At the moment, tomorrow looks similar to today, if not slightly more active. As always, email me your reports. Thanks for following!

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