The Tuesday Rain Snow and Hurricane Update

Hurricane Laura

I know Laura was still a Tropical Storm yesterday when I referred to her as a Hurricane. That was for emphasis. As of the next NHC (National Hurricane Center) update she will be a Hurricane officially–Update NHC upgraded to category 1.

I am still not hearing a lot of “Texas talk” from the media about this storm. If this storm comes right up Galveston Bay in Houston it is going to have the potential to due more damage than the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Hopefully, later today there will be less talk about Louisiana and more about Texas. Even the GFS has shifted west and shows a Port Arthur, Texas landfall. The Euro has been between south of Houston and Port Arthur and the most recent run is the north side of Houston.

Look, I don’t know what is going to happen, but I am seeing the potential of a disaster in the making. A major landfall in one of the largest cities in the US in a City with a lot of trees that could destroy a lot of homes and a dangerous storm surge.

Here are the latest model runs for landfall.

Euro-slightly east of Houston

GFS-Port Arthur

Here are the wind gust swaths.

Euro

GFS

Here are zoomed in versions showing Galveston Bay, Houston, and to the north, Port Arthur.

GFS-highest winds in Port Arthur

Euro highest winds hitting areas of Houston

Here are the rain totals

GFS

Euro

As I said yesterday this is going to be moving too quickly to see the deadly rainfall totals that occurred during Harvey. Nevertheless, it is still a lot of water to deal with.

Local Regional Outlook

Today and tomorrow the lower and mid-elevations have their best chances of precipitation in a long time. We will have decent CAPE after 1 pm and all afternoon moist air will work in.

Here are the max CAPE values this afternoon

And here are PWATs (available precipitation in inches that could fall from the sky if it fell all at once) at 5 pm. This is between 150% to 200% of normal for today.

No promises though. As I have said we have that negative feedback situation in place where the air is very dry in low and mid levels of the atmosphere. This would lead to precipitation evaporating before reaching the ground (virga).

Snow?

Well, I didn’t say it would snow here but it is just nice to see a little blue on the map.

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday! Based on this thickness level snow would fall in the northern mountains down to 9,500 feet!

Thanks for following and supporting the site. Share this with your Texas friends and relatives. More updates throughout the day Wednesday. I appreciate your precipitation reports, just make sure you tell me your locations!

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