All of the ingredients are in place today for a potentially active afternoon. As expected, moisture moved into the area late in the day and led to a few evening and overnight showers in many locations. Dew points will around 50 degrees or higher throughout the day. CAPE (available energy for storm production) will be considerably higher than yesterday and we should see storms firing a little earlier than yesterday as long as the sun stays out.
Here are the CAPE values for this afternoon. Generally, anytime the values exceed 500 you have a chance of storms developing.
Precipitation forecasts are pretty scattered. IF you are lucky enough to have a slow-moving storm set up over your area a quick 1/4 to 1/2 an inch may accumulate. PWAT values are going to exceed an inch this afternoon so it is likely some areas will get some decent rain. Remember the burn scar areas only need about 1/4 of an inch in an hour to trigger debris flows.
I will do another update after the Euro comes out in 4 hours, but it looks like Houston is going to be spared the worst-case scenario. Models are focusing on an area between Port Arthur, TX, and Lake Charles, LA. For those familiar with the Coastal locations south of those cities, it looks like Cameron and Holly Beach will be near landfall. That would put the northeast quadrant somewhere between Holly Beach eastward to Grand Chenier.
While this is good news for Houston, it is not good news for Lake Charles-Port Arthur. There are a couple of big refineries in that area so that may lead to a whole new set of problems. Do not be surprised to see this storm develop into a category 4 or possibly a 5. At the moment it looks like it will be a cat 4 at landfall.
The other thing I have not talked about is where this storm goes next. Northern Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee will all see damage as the storm stays fairly active on land as it heads to the east coast over the next several days.
Check out the wind gust swath as the storm tracks north than east over the coming days. Damaging winds will be a threat from Little Rock to Memphis and Nashville.
Thanks for following, next update this afternoon.