There is a chance we could see some light isolated showers today, with a better chance of scattered showers Tuesday. Today most of the activity will occur at or above 8,800 feet. Tuesday we may some of the light shower activity drift off the mountains into the Valley areas and or mid-elevation areas.
I am not expecting any significant accumulations. A few of the higher elevations may accumulate.30-.50″. The lower elevations may squeak out a few hundredths of an inch.
Here are the max CAPE values for today. 561 at DGO around 3 pm could be enough available energy to get some storms forming. I am going to wash my car today, that might do the trick.
If you are enjoying this period of what I refer to as boring weather, good news, it looks like it is going to continue. When I look at the long-range models, there are some signs that precipitation will pick up a bit after October 7th. That is a long time from now, so no promises just yet.
I spent some time going back through precipitation records (back to 1895) and I saw no correlation between low precipitation August and September and low precipitation October through December. If anything I noticed some large anomalies pop up after drier than average Augusts and Septembers. I mention this because people are starting to get nervous about Winter. Wait to worry, I have not given up on an “average” snowfall Winter for SW Colorado.