The next weather maker is currently near Las Vegas with pre-frontal moisture stretching all of the way to Page, Arizona. This system is not going to have nearly as much moisture as the last one, but it will have some decent snow. Tuesday is going to be a great day at Wolf Creek, I am expecting 14-20 more inches there by late Monday night. This on top of the 16 inches they got yesterday and overnight.
Spotty precipitation is already streaming into the higher elevations. However, the main feed of pre-frontal moisture will arrive around 8 pm with the heavier bands not arriving until around midnight.
With the colder air already in place, we will see snow ratios ranging from 12-1 in lower elevations. 14-1 around 7,400 feet and 20-1 at or above 9,500 feet. This will make the most out of the lower liquid-equivalent totals that the models are predicting for this event. To our west, there are numerous Advisories and Warnings in and around the Flagstaff area for 5-12 inches of snow.
Here are the latest updated Warnings and Advisories in our forecast area.
COZ022-023-091400-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0022.201109T0600Z-201109T2100Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST MONDAY…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 160.
* WHERE…ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN…FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, AND MANCOS
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2020
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 2 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET…
* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 160.
* WHERE…FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER.
* WHEN…FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2020
COZ018-019-091400-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-201110T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
MONDAY…
* WHAT…MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY
Wolf Creek
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
245 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2020
…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST
MONDAY…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE…LA GARITA MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN…UNTIL 11 PM MST MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.
Overall, I think the current Warnings and Advisories will hit at least the minimums, except I am not so sure about Cortez hitting 2 inches.
As is usually the case blanket Advisories and Warnings don’t apply to every area.
Earlier I mentioned Wolf Creek for 14-20 inches. I also like Purgatory, Telluride, Vallecito, and Lemon area for 8-12 inches. 5-10 inches for Mayday, Forest Lakes, and Durango Hills depending on your elevation. 4-8 inches for Hesperus at or above 8,000 feet, Durango Ridge Ranch and Edgemont Highlands.
I am reluctant to push the upper end of the predicted totals for Falls Creek, DWest, Rafter J, Shenandoah (etc), but an upside surprise would not shock me at all.
We are going to have some of the coldest temperatures of the season over the next couple of days so plan accordingly.
Next Update Monday morning. Thanks to those who emailed me reports, tomorrow there will be more to measure.
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