A closed area of low pressure will spin off the southern California coast for the next couple of days before gradually dropping south. On Wednesday, the low will move onshore into northern Mexico and southern Arizona, and New Mexico by Thursday morning. By Friday most of that precipitation will have worked east of Colorado and New Mexico with a few lingering snow showers east of the Continental Divide.
While that is happening a cold front will start to drop down from the north ushering in cooler weather with some snow for the Northern and Central Mountains. The best chances for snow in our area will be in the areas that favor northerly and northwesterly flow later on Friday with snow showers lingering in the mountains Saturday morning.
All said and done most areas will only get a dusting but Telluride, Ouray, and Silverton could see a couple to few inches if everything comes together.
The models are not in agreement with their precipitation amounts. The Canadian is trying to develop a more assertive area of low pressure and forecasting fairly significant precipitation. The latest GFS shows a glancing blow with nothing for the lower elevations but less than 18 hours ago it was showing much higher amounts. The latest Euro is trending higher after showing very little 12 and 24 hours ago. Cross your fingers that the Canadian is setting the trend.
On Sunday the models are indicating that the ridge will make a brief reappearance until another trough drops into the western US by Tuesday (December 15th). I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself but it looks like we will be in an environment more conducive to storm development right as we begin the last couple weeks of December.
That’s all I have today. Hang in there and Thanks for following!